Whale Moves, Tech Signals Push BCH To New Highs

While attention remains focused on Bitcoin and Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is emerging as the summer surprise of the market. In three months, the crypto has surged by 75 %, reaching 526.5 dollars on July 1st, a high not seen for months. This unexpected surge for many analysts is accompanied by an intensification of large holder movements and a rare technical setup. Between coordinated speculation and bullish signals, the return of BCH triggers as much enthusiasm as questions about the true nature of this dynamic.

Whales and Bullish Signals : Visible Catalysts of the Rally

Renewed interest in Bitcoin Cash has accelerated in recent days, notably with the explosion in large-scale transaction volume on the network, while Bitcoin has just again crossed the $109,000 mark. On July 4, the analytics firm IntoTheBlock noted a 122.45 % increase in transactions over $100,000, with 957,440 BCH exchanged, equating to an approximate value of $482 million.

These large movements, coinciding with previous peaks in February, May, and June, are interpreted by several analysts as signals announcing major upcoming fluctuations. The large BCH transfers observed this week resemble behavioral patterns previously seen before significant price increases.

This surge is also supported by a series of technical signals and market data reflecting a clear return in speculative appetite for the asset. Among the identified triggers :

• A golden cross detected at the end of June on the BCH hourly chart : the 50-day moving average crossed the 200-day moving average, a historically bullish signal ;
• Open interest on BCH derivatives rose by 27.4 % in one week, reaching $578 million ;
• Daily trading volume tripled, exceeding 120,000 cryptos exchanged within 24 hours ;
• Capital rotation is observed, as some investors seek alternatives to major assets amid a global crypto market rebound.

These factors, while encouraging in terms of momentum, primarily reflect an opportunistic logic rather than a recovery driven by solid fundamentals.

Weak Fundamentals and Warning Signals

While the market appears euphoric, on-chain data tempers the enthusiasm. Real activity on the BCH network is clearly declining. Indeed, the number of daily active addresses has reached a six-year low, suggesting that the current rally is not based on increased network adoption but rather on a speculative dynamic disconnected from real usage. This rally is more supported by speculation than by growth in the network’s utility.

Another event drew analysts’ attention: a single transaction of 10,000 BCH, approximately 5 million dollars, was spotted just before the spectacular movement of 80,000 dormant BTC (over 8.5 billion dollars).

Some experts believe this transfer may have served as a test of a private key or wallet in preparation for this historic operation, the largest of its kind in over ten years.

Although the Bitcoin Cash Foundation announced on July 1st the release of Knuth v0.68.0, a node software update aimed at improving UTXO efficiency, no announcement of notable adoption or institutional integration has bolstered the network’s fundamentals. Roger Ver’s efforts, a prominent BCH figure, remain visible but without concrete large-scale support.

This situation fuels doubts about the sustainability of the current bullish momentum. While the technical zone between $478 and $508 could play a support role, the weakness of real usage indicators limits prospects for a structural rebound. Developments around technology or community, such as micropayment projects or NFTs, remain marginal at this stage. The risk of a BCH crash is real, due to the lack of solid anchoring in the current crypto ecosystem, which is increasingly oriented towards layer 2 solutions and real applications.