What Bitcoin’s New High Means For Q3 ?

May 2025 will go down in history: bitcoin surpassed $111,970, an unprecedented peak that electrifies the market. Yet, behind the euphoria, analysts are cautious. This surge occurs on the eve of a historically fragile third quarter for the asset. Between speculative frenzy and signs of consolidation, uncertainty is spreading among investors. Should this be seen as the beginning of a new cycle or the start of a strategic pullback? Doubt is setting in, fueled by lessons from the past and upcoming tensions.

A historic peak that does not yet convince analysts

While bitcoin set a new historic peak at $111,970 on May 22, Bitfinex analysts state in a market note published on May 28 :

The coming weeks will determine whether bitcoin’s recent breakthrough represents a local peak or the prelude to a more aggressive new surge in the third quarter.

However, despite this symbolic milestone, experts refuse to get carried away. They remind us “that a period of consolidation or a slight pullback would not only be healthy but would lay the foundation for more sustainable progress”.

In short, euphoria alone is not enough to guarantee the continuation of the trend, especially in a historically unfavorable period for the market.

Historical data reinforces this caution. According to CoinGlass data, the third quarter has historically proven to be the weakest for bitcoin since 2013. A few key figures confirm this :

• +6.03 % average return for BTC in the third quarter over the last 11 years, all periods combined ;
• By comparison, the second quarter shows a more robust average performance of +27.25 % ;
• The 4th quarter remains historically the strongest for bitcoin ;
• Bitfinex also observes that the market has entered a “short-term stagnation phase” ;
• This situation is explained in particular by selling pressure exerted by BTC holders for less than 155 days.

In this context, the enthusiasm generated by the new ATH remains tempered by a more nuanced technical and statistical reality.

Technical and institutional fundamentals supporting the bullish scenario

While historical data advises caution, other signals argue in favor of a continued rise once macroeconomic uncertainty dissipates. Bitfinex indeed highlights that several indicators show a maturing market, notably the strength of flows toward spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Between May 19 and 23, US spot ETFs recorded an inflow of $2.75 billion, according to Farside’s figures. Moreover, the premium observed on the spot market and the current low volatility complete this picture, suggesting sustained institutional momentum. For Bitfinex, all these elements form a technical and structural foundation “conducive to potential continuation”.

In this contrasted climate, short-term investors taking profits add a layer of complexity. Over the last 30 days, more than $11.4 billion in profits have been realized by short-term holders, according to data relayed by Bitfinex.

The average acquisition price of these investors was $95,781, representing an average gain of 13.72 %. While this configuration creates temporary selling pressure, it does not erode structural demand, which could strengthen in the coming weeks as the macroeconomic framework becomes clearer.

In this regard, the market is closely watching the next decision of the US Federal Reserve, expected on June 18. May’s monetary status quo (4.25% – 4.50%) could be extended or broken, which would directly influence appetite for risk assets like bitcoin. If the macroeconomic context clears in favor of a less restrictive environment, current signals suggest the market is ready for a new surge.