What if quantum fear was just another excuse in a exhausted crypto cycle

The quantum apocalypse is announced soon. Some already see it at work. Just look at bitcoin, hacked down, to be convinced. A real bloodbath. Crypto investors look for culprits. What if that was it? If the computer of the future killed the asset of the past? Looking more closely though, the numbers tell another story. Maybe quantum is just a convenient scarecrow in a market that is running out of steam.

46% drop: is bitcoin a victim of quantum or AI competition?

The observation is brutal. Since October, bitcoin has lost 46% of its value. Analysts like Charles Edwards point to an ideal culprit: the quantum psychosis. But Matt Carallo, Bitcoin developer at Spiral, weighed in on the Unchained podcast. He drops a number that wrecks the whole theory:

If that were true, then Ethereum would be strongly up compared to bitcoin.

Translation: ETH crashed 58% in the same period. Worse than bitcoin. So quantum explains absolutely nothing. 

So what else? Carallo suggests a plausible lead: artificial intelligence. “AI is super capital intensive,” he says. “It’s a new massive investment class directly competing for capital.”

While Nvidia pumps all the liquidity, bitcoin bleeds out. Quantum watches the show from a distance.

Quiet work of bitcoin developers amidst accusations of sleepwalking

Second misconception to bust: bitcoin devs are dozing off. Nick Carter even accuses them of “sleepwalking towards collapse.” Carallo chuckles softly. 

The ground reality is far more complex. Experts like Jonas Nick at Blockstream Research or Tim Ruffing have been working on the subject for ages. Their idea is simple but elegant: allow wallets to commit a post-quantum key now, without using it. Zero cost for the user. And cherry on top, seed phrases (those twelve or twenty-four words scribbled on paper) are already quantum-safe.

“That means we could do a soft fork relatively quickly,” explains Carallo. “It would only require proof of seed knowledge.” So the technical solution exists. It’s even rather simple on paper. But it doesn’t make noise in the media sphere. 

Meanwhile, FUD travels at the speed of a well-aimed tweet.

1.7 million sleeping BTC: the real debate behind the ambient fear

Here lies the heart of the problem, the one we prefer to avoid. About 5% of total bitcoin supply quietly sleeps in wallets without seed phrases. Satoshi’s coins, those lost to sight, the ancients no one woke. What should be done with them when the time comes? Burn them cleanly or expose them to quantum theft?

Carallo puts forward a thesis that will make some grind their teeth: the market will decide itself. 

The fork that disables old addresses will reduce supply. So mechanically, it will be worth more. 

Matt Carallo

Understand clearly: it won’t be the developers who decide the fate of these millions, but the holders, via their chain choice. As a result, quantum fear becomes a handy tool. Are those screaming today secretly preparing to burn millions of BTC?

The real danger may not be in the computers of the future. It lurks in the stories fed to us today.

The real numbers behind the psychosis

• 46%: bitcoin’s drop since its October peak;
• 58%: Ethereum’s drop in the same period, even harsher;
• 1.7 million: sleeping BTC without seed phrase causing concern;
• 5%: share of total supply affected by this technical problem;
• $67,596: the bitcoin price at the time of writing.

For some specialists, quantum computing will never pose a real threat to bitcoin. For others, like at Coinshare, the risk is even quantifiable with precision: only $719 million would be exposed. A drop in the bucket on the market scale. So why all the fuss? In an exhausted cycle looking for explanations, a good excuse is always better than a bad one. Quantum scares. That’s one thing gained for those who want to sell aluminum foil.