Will $850B In The TGA Trigger A Crypto Rally ?

What if the threshold of 850 billion dollars held by the U.S. Treasury became the new catalyst for the crypto market ? Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, estimates that once the U.S. Treasury general account (TGA) is filled at 850 billion dollars, cryptos will enter a continuous upward phase. This position comes as the Fed has just cut its rates, reigniting debates on the impact of U.S. monetary policies on the dynamics of bitcoin and altcoins.

Arthur Hayes bets on a key threshold of the U.S. Treasury

While some investors predict an imminent crypto market crash, Arthur Hayes identified the U.S. Treasury as a central actor for the future market dynamics in a post published on September 20.

According to him, the liquidity accumulation in the Treasury general account (TGA) acts as a critical indicator for risky assets, including crypto.

• Hayes estimates that 850 billion dollars in the TGA would mark the trigger threshold : “once this level is reached, the crypto market will have only one direction: continuous rise”, he wrote ;
• The TGA already holds more than 807 billion dollars, quickly approaching the target set by Janet Yellen ;
• According to him, as long as the Treasury absorbs liquidity, “private markets are deprived of oxygen”. Once the threshold is reached, these flows would be released and could irrigate financial markets, including bitcoin.

TGA refill almost done – target is $850bn. With this liquidity drain complete, up only can resume. pic.twitter.com/LSVieKX2J8

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) September 20, 2025

Hayes summarizes this mechanism as a “pump” temporarily sucking capital. However, he believes this accumulation phase is temporary and will be followed by an influx of liquidity likely to trigger a sustained bullish phase.

Analysts’ doubts about the correlation

Not all observers share Arthur Hayes’s optimism. André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Asset Management, believes the impact of net liquidity on bitcoin price remains marginal. “The correlation between liquidity and bitcoin is weak and misleading”, he said, calling for caution against oversimplified conclusions.

These critiques point out that crypto dynamics, especially bitcoin, do not depend solely on the Fed or the Treasury. Investor psychology, institutional flows, and regulation also play an equally important role. The recent volatility episode, which occurred after the rate cut announcement, is an illustration. Markets had already anticipated this decision and the reaction was not linear.

Ultimately, Hayes’s thesis presents an attractive scenario but is contested. If reaching the threshold of 850 billion dollars on the TGA were to coincide with a bullish recovery of bitcoin and altcoins, it would not suffice to explain all the dynamics.