XRP Faces $0.80 Risk After Losing Key $1 Support

XRP fell below one dollar for the first time since August, after losing nearly 38% from its October peak. More than a psychological threshold, this break changes the market structure: each rebound towards one dollar can now face sellers looking to break even.

The fall below 1 dollar weakens the entire structure of XRP

XRP trades around 0.96 dollar on November 14, after nine consecutive daily closing declines. Its decline reached about 14.5% over one week, while its price remained very far from the 1.60 dollar peak reached in October.

The one dollar level had served as a support point during the summer recovery. Its break now reveals several key zones :

• Between 0.95 and 1 dollar is the first demand zone ;
• A break below 0.95 dollar would expose the 0.90 dollar threshold ;
• An acceleration could bring XRP down to 0.80 dollar ;
• A return above one dollar would be the first sign of stabilization ;
• The zone between 1.20 and 1.25 dollar remains the main resistance.

The one dollar threshold can now change function. Investors who bought just above it suffer a loss. If XRP rises back to their entry price, some may sell to get their capital back, which changes the former support into a supply zone.

The 0.80 dollar target mentioned is not a certain forecast. It represents the next major technical level if buyers do not defend 0.95 dollar. From 0.99 dollar, such a decline would correspond to a further drop of about 19%.

Sellers keep control despite whales buying

US XRP ETFs recorded approximately 19.1 million dollars in outflows between November 9 and 13. The largest withdrawal occurred on November 9, with 10.42 million dollars, followed by 7.62 million the next day.

These amounts show weakening demand, but not a massive exit of institutional investors. The products still hold about 1.71 billion dollars of cumulative inflows since their launch. The recent outflows thus represent a small fraction of the capital already collected.

The most concerning signal rather comes from the absence of purchases. The ETFs have not had any net inflow session since October 29. This interruption removes a regular source of demand at a time when sellers dominate the spot market.

The decline in assets held by funds is also not only due to redemptions. When XRP drops, the dollar value of the tokens held decreases mechanically. Therefore, it is necessary to distinguish investors who actually withdraw their money from the loss of valuation caused by the market.

This nuance prevents presenting ETFs as the sole cause of the fall. They no longer fuel the recovery, but their outflows remain too limited to explain alone the nearly 38% drop recorded since October.

Whales accumulate without regaining price control

The number of wallets holding at least 10,000 XRP reached 343,578, its highest level in a year. This increase suggests that some holders are taking advantage of the decline to strengthen their positions.

Accumulation does not guarantee a rebound though. An increase in the number of large wallets does not indicate their average purchase price nor their ability to absorb all available supply. It may also reflect a redistribution of tokens among several addresses rather than the arrival of new capital.

Derivatives simultaneously maintain volatility. About 16.9 million dollars of XRP positions were liquidated during the drop, while open interest remained close to 2.12 billion. As of November 14, nearly 97% of liquidations over twenty-four hours involved long positions.

The daily RSI fell around 21.5, a level generally considered oversold. This indicator can favor a technical rebound, but it does not prove the floor is reached. An asset can remain oversold while its downtrend continues.

The real test will therefore not be a simple brief return above one dollar. XRP will have to hold above it, absorb sales from trapped investors, and gradually regain the 1.20 to 1.25 dollar zone. As long as this sequence does not happen, whale accumulation will remain an encouraging but insufficient signal to regain market control.