XRP Gains Ground But Faces Critical Technical Challenges

Nearly 94 % of XRP investors are now in the green, a level rarely reached in crypto history. Driven by a surge up to $3.11, the fourth largest crypto by market capitalization triggers as much euphoria as concern. Indeed, previous instances where XRP reached such profitability were followed by sharp corrections, in 2018 as in 2021. This time, is it a new bull cycle… or a precursor sign of a brutal reversal?

A Market at its Peak : 93.92 % of XRP Investors in Profit

While institutional investors are returning to the crypto, 93.92 % of XRP holders are currently in profit according to the latest data from Glassnode. A rare situation in the crypto landscape, resulting from an impressive rally of over 500 % in nine months, pushing its price up to $3.11.

Such a concentration of investors in profit draws analysts’ attention, especially since similar levels have historically preceded major reversals.

Past data supports this caution :

• In January 2018, XRP reached a peak of $3.30, with an overwhelming majority of investors in profit. This was followed by a drop of over 95 % ;

• In April 2021, a new bullish phase pushed the crypto to $1.95, before an 85 % collapse ;

• In both cases, the high proportion of profitable wallets was followed by a strong profit-taking movement, leading to a sharp correction.

The return of such a level of profitability could therefore create significant selling pressure. Investors, after months of gains, might be tempted to secure their profits, which could push the market into a distribution phase. XRP is thus currently in a historically sensitive zone, between legitimate enthusiasm and structural risks.

Technical Tensions

Beyond investors’ profit, technical indicators paint a more contrasted picture. XRP is currently evolving in a “descending triangle” chart pattern, a setup known for its potentially bearish nature.

XRP found support at $3.05, a critical level which, if broken, could open the way to a drop toward $2.39 by September. Conversely, a bullish breakout of the trend line could reverse the momentum and carry the asset toward the $6 zone according to some analysts.

Moreover, on-chain data reinforce this tension scenario. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator has now entered a zone marked by excessive confidence, historically linked to market peaks in 2017 and 2021.

This zone reflects a phase where investors firmly believe in the continuation of the rise, while denying correction risks. Such a reading fits within a market context where expectations are high, but so is volatility.

These combined signals—bearish configuration, historical profitability levels, and critical on-chain indicators—highlight a pivotal period for XRP. If the market manages to hold its support and validate a bullish breakout, the crypto could benefit from a new momentum. However, in case of failure, the scenario of a significant correction seems increasingly plausible.