XRP's 2025 Setup Mirrors 2017, Experts Say

The ghost of 2017 is haunting speculators again. While some are betting on a comeback of XRP, comparisons with the last bull run are multiplying. However, the current market has little to do with that of yesterday. New dynamics, increased competition, divergent technical signals: does the analogy still hold? Behind the hope of a bullish rebound, a colder reading of the data tells a different story.

Supporters of a graphical remake of the 2017 bull run

Some influential analysts in the crypto sphere, including CRYPTOWZRD and JD, claim that the current technical setup of the XRP price recalls that which preceded the +11,900 % explosion recorded in 2017.

At that time, XRP had evolved for several months in a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern, before breaking sharply upwards and triggering a historic rally.

According to CRYPTOWZRD, “the current behavior of the XRP market almost exactly reflects the dynamics before its 2017 bull run”.

⚠️ BUYING TIME 😇

Strip it back to basics and you can see..

🚨 $XRP is identical to 2017’s Bull Run Structure.. the longer it consolidates the bigger the explosion 🚀

Hold on tight.. 💪🏻 pic.twitter.com/aZo2Liqd6d

— CRYPTOWZRD (@cryptoWZRD_) September 3, 2025

JD mentions a theoretical target of 20 dollars per crypto, based on similar technical extrapolation.

$XRP – Current pattern looks like 2017 when it 10x+ after breakout!

Then RUG PULL crashed 95%! Dumb Money "Know what they hold" for 7 SAD years!

I called 0.28 bottom w/TA; I'll call MARKET TOP next before RUG PULL CRASH that's coming using TA!

500 RTs, I'll post my TOP on X!… pic.twitter.com/lmlcLEDKn8

— JD 🇵🇭 (@jaydee_757) September 3, 2025

This thesis relies exclusively on a chartist approach, according to which prices obey recurring cycles, regardless of current fundamentals. Supporters of this view base themselves on several graphical elements, including :

• A current consolidation phase reminiscent of the 2017 structure (symmetrical triangle over several months) ;
• An expected bullish breakout, identified by analysts as imminent ;
• A theoretical target set at $20, based on the projection of the triangle’s amplitude ;
• A conviction that history repeats itself, despite the market’s evolution over eight years.

This narrative, visually convincing, resonates on social media, where the prospect of a “second 2017” attracts many retail investors.  

Fundamental signals contradicting the promise of a rally

Unlike 2017, behavioral data from long-term XRP holders today show a marked loss of conviction. Relying on the NUPL indicator (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) provided by Glassnode, it should be noted that these investors have shifted from the “euphoria and greed” zone to that of “conviction and denial.” This declining sentiment suggests that holders now doubt the rally’s strength.

In 2017, the same metric showed a prolonged maintenance in euphoria, a sign of strong commitment despite volatility. This growing hesitation reflects a loss of confidence, similar to that observed just before the 2021 correction.

Another breaking point element is XRP’s chronic underperformance against Bitcoin. If the XRP/BTC ratio rose by more than 3,700 % in 2017 to peak at 0.00023 BTC, it currently remains about 90 % below that peak, stuck in a distribution zone between 0.000025 and 0.000030 BTC, already tested several times between 2019 and 2022.

This technical level, historically synonymous with stagnation or pullback, illustrates Ripple’s crypto inability to regain leadership against the market’s dominant assets.

These profound divergences between the 2017 context and this year’s call for a cautious interpretation. The crypto market is now more mature, more competitive, and XRP must compete with serious rivals such as Ethereum, Solana, Sui, or even stablecoins in the cross-border payments sector. The scenario of an impulsive bull run driven solely by technical analysis therefore seems fragile. At present, nothing confirms that the conditions are met for a repetition of the 2017 cycle.