Not Whales, But long-term Holders Now Drive BTC

While bitcoin remains above $89,000 at the start of 2026, many analysts claim that whales are beginning a powerful accumulation movement. A signal perceived by some as the prelude to a new bull run. However, behind this optimistic reading, on-chain data tells a very different story. Far from a massive return of large holders, the current market dynamic seems driven by other actors, much more discreet… and probably more decisive for what comes next.

An Overstated Whale Accumulation

Contrary to appearances, whales are not driving the current market dynamic, even though their rush on Binance triggered a shockwave.

According to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, the data reported in recent weeks about a supposed phase of bitcoin accumulation by large holders are “misleading”.

He explains that these signals largely come from internal movements within exchanges : “most data on whale accumulation are distorted by exchange-related activities, not by actual investor behavior”.

These platforms regularly perform fund consolidations, mainly for operational or regulatory reasons, by merging several small wallets into a few large addresses. This accounting operation results, on on-chain analysis tools, in an apparent increase in the number of massive wallets. However, this increase is artificial.

Once these consolidation effects are filtered out, the data shows the opposite of what some charts shared on social networks suggest: whales are not strengthening their positions, they are reducing them. Addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC are declining. Several converging indicators support this conclusion :

• The aggregated balances of large addresses continue to decline, suggesting a distribution phase rather than a return to buying ;

• Outflows recorded on some spot Bitcoin ETFs indicate that significant positions are transferred or sold ;

• Internal movements within exchanges remain a major disruptive factor in interpreting on-chain data, but they do not reflect strategic positioning.

These elements highlight the growing gap between the interpretation of raw data and the behavioral reality of major investors. Far from a widespread enthusiasm of whales, the market seems to evolve in a more measured climate where institutional actors’ movements and technical effects dominate signals of a real recovery.

A Quiet but Decisive Return

While attention turns to whales, another signal, much more fundamental, has emerged in silence.

Matthew Sigel, head of crypto research at VanEck, states that “long-term holders have become net buyers again over the past 30 days”, after what he describes as “the biggest selling event for this cohort since 2019”. This trend reversal, although less spectacular than the supposed accumulation by whales, marks a significant evolution in the market structure.

Long-term holders, historically known for their patience and resilience, often act as a barometer for long-term confidence in the Bitcoin network. Their gradual return to accumulation suggests that the distribution phase observed in 2025 could be behind us, and that selling pressure is beginning to ease.

This behavior sharply contrasts with that of short-term investors or institutional entities more exposed to speculative dynamics. If their tendency to hold positions is confirmed, it could stabilize the circulating supply of BTC and, ultimately, strengthen the foundations of a new bullish cycle.

These cross dynamics between misleading signals and discreet accumulation redraw the lines of market interpretation. While whale behavior divides opinion, that of long-term holders intrigues. In this context, the bitcoin price could evolve not according to appearances, but according to the depth of structural convictions.