XRP Activity Heats Up: Is a Rally Around the Corner?

Ripple’s XRP is back in the spotlight as market activity around the cryptocurrency picks up speed. Open interest has surged close to $4 billion. Over the weekend, it briefly pushed even higher, which has many traders watching closely.

Is XRP Building Momentum or Bracing for a Shock?

This rise in open interest isn’t just a random spike. It means more traders are getting involved in bets about XRP’s future value, either expecting a rise or preparing for a fall. This kind of trading activity shows that the market is heating up.

 XRP is trading at around $2.18, up roughly 2% in the past 24 hours as of the time of writing. While that might not sound dramatic, the combination of steady price movement and surging open interest usually hints that the market could be setting up for a much bigger shift.

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, told CoinDesk that this spike in activity suggests strong momentum, with traders preparing for a decisive move as XRP’s price boom raises expectations of a short squeeze-fueled rally.

In the past, similar patterns in XRP have led to sudden price spikes that caught sellers off guard. These moves often triggered short-covering rallies, where short sellers rush to buy back their positions, pushing the price higher.

But nothing is guaranteed. High open interest without a clear reason can go either way. If sentiment suddenly turns negative, the market could experience sharp drops as traders get liquidated. Lee warned that unless a clear event or news gives the market direction, this kind of trading pressure could lead to wild swings, up or down.

XRP Price Trends and What the Charts Are Telling Us

To understand where XRP might be heading next, it’s helpful to look at the price chart. The most recent clear uptrend ended in mid-January. Since then, XRP began moving within a descending channel. That trend continued for a few months until early May, when the price briefly broke out of the channel.

For a moment, it looked like XRP might run higher. But by late May, the price had failed to hold above the key $2.50 level — a strong resistance zone that bulls have struggled to overcome.

Now, there are a few critical levels to watch. On the downside, $2.04 stands out as strong support. It’s been tested repeatedly and held up each time. If that level fails, XRP could slide toward $1.60. On the upside, reclaiming $2.50 with strong volume would signal that bulls are back in control. Beyond that, the next major hurdles are $2.90 and $2.93—important psychological and historical resistance points.

Technical indicators are mixed. The MACD is currently bearish, with the MACD line and signal line both below zero. That means downward pressure hasn’t yet let up. Meanwhile, the RSI is sitting at around 42. That’s not quite in oversold territory, but it does reflect weak momentum overall.

Analysts Eye Historical Patterns and Long-Term Potential

Despite the short-term uncertainty, some market watchers see signs that XRP could be gearing up for a major rally. A crypto analyst on X, EGRAG, points to similarities between the current price action and previous XRP bull runs in 2017 and 2021.

In both those cycles, XRP broke above the 21-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the two-week chart before pulling back and retesting the EMA as support. After that retest, the price surged. In 2017, it soared over 7,000%. In 2021, the gain was over 400%.

So far, the pattern seems to be repeating. XRP pushed up from around $0.50 last November and climbed all the way to a recent high of $3.40 in January. It has since corrected and is now hovering around the 21 EMA again — potentially setting the stage for another move up. EGRAG believes that, if the past is any guide, XRP could hit targets of $10, $18, or even $27 by late July or early August.

Other traders are also picking up bullish signals. Alpha Crypto Signal pointed out that XRP broke out of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the two-hour chart. The breakout was backed by strong trading volume, and the price is now testing a zone between $2.22 and $2.24. This area had previously served as a breakdown point, so reclaiming it could open the door to more gains in the short term. If the price struggles at this level, a temporary pullback might come first — but the setup still looks positive overall.

Where to From Here?

At this point, XRP’s direction depends on whether it can hold key support levels and break through the most important resistance areas. If momentum builds and volume increases, the token could be on its way to new highs. But if confidence fades or no major catalyst appears, prices could just as easily retreat.

Right now, traders are keeping a close eye on the $2.04 support and $2.50 resistance levels. What happens around these price points could shape whether XRP breaks out or stays stuck in a range. There’s also growing speculation about a possible spot XRP ETF, with whispers that BlackRock may be preparing to file. Meanwhile, firms like Franklin Templeton are still waiting on a green light from the SEC. In late May, the SEC postponed decisions on similar proposals from 21Shares and Grayscale, pushing the next deadline to June 17. If approved, it could spark renewed interest in XRP and potentially drive its price higher, further strengthening cryptocurrencies’ case as the ultimate alternative to gold.