XRP Eyes Breakout While Markets Remain Tense

The latest US inflation figures reignite tensions in the financial markets, and the crypto sector is not immune to this nervousness. Stuck below the $3 mark, XRP struggles to define a clear trend. In a climate where every economic data fuels speculation about the Fed’s monetary policy, Ripple’s asset moves in a zone of uncertainty. Between hopes for a breakout and risks of correction, pressure is mounting around a threshold that has become strategic.

US inflation reignites tensions: Fed under pressure, XRP on hold

The monthly report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, published this Thursday, September 11, surprised the markets. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4 % in August (compared to 0.2 % in July), bringing annual inflation to 2.9 %, its highest level since January, while the crypto market is recovering.

The “core” version of the index, which excludes food and energy, remained stable at +3.1 % year-over-year. This data, deemed critical, tempered hopes for a rapid easing of US monetary policy. Expectations for a 0.25 point rate cut by the Fed in September fell from 91 % to 88.7 %”, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

In this tense context, risk assets, including XRP, react cautiously. Ripple’s crypto clings to the psychological threshold of $3.00, failing to establish a clear direction. This status quo is notably explained by a hesitant market dynamic, characterized by “an aggressive push and pull between buyers and sellers”. Specifically, here are the key points :

• The overall CPI stands at 2.9 %, compared to 2.7 % the previous month ;
• The Core CPI remains at 3.1 %, a level closely watched by the Fed ;
• The probability of a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting has slightly decreased ;
• XRP is stuck around $3.00, without a breakout up or down.

In summary, macroeconomic data has slowed speculative momentum around XRP, without reversing the trend. The crypto market, like stock indices, is now in a wait-and-see phase, suspended to the next monetary policy announcement.

The rise of derivatives

While the macroeconomic context weighs on the short-term prospects of the entire crypto market, Ripple’s crypto shows specific signs of resilience. Open Interest in XRP futures contracts reached $8.15 billion this Thursday, compared to $7.37 billion last Sunday.

This significant increase in speculative engagement reflects a renewed investor interest in the asset and can be interpreted as anticipation of a significant directional move. At this stage, the $3.00 threshold acts as a technical pivot. Investors are buying dips towards $2.91, a level corresponding to the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA 50).

From a technical analysis perspective, signals point upward. The MACD configuration, in “buy signal” mode since Monday, and a stable RSI at 54 indicate a moderate but real bullish momentum.

The RSI increase, approaching an overbought zone, confirms sustained buying pressure. Furthermore, the next critical zone identified by analysts is $3.35, last tested in mid-August. If this resistance were to break, the market could then target the peak reached last July 18 at $3.65.