Crypto Altcoins to Lag in 2026 as Bitcoin Could Hit $180K and Blue-Chip Tokens Lead

The expected surge in altcoins may not unfold as widely as anticipated. CoinEx Research chief analyst Jeff Ko predicts a slowdown in the usual altcoin rally next year, with liquidity likely shifting away from smaller, speculative tokens toward a handful of established, blue-chip cryptos. Bitcoin is also in focus, with projections suggesting it could reach $180K.

Liquidity Concentration in Blue-Chip Cryptos

Ko warns that investors expecting widespread gains across altcoins may not see the results they hope for. He expects liquidity to remain highly selective, flowing primarily to established cryptos that show real adoption and market credibility. Supporting this, the Altcoin Season Index currently stands at 37, showing that altcoins have yet to experience broad gains across the market.

Looking ahead, Ko anticipates that global liquidity may provide some support in 2026, but varying central bank policies could limit its effects. He also observes that Bitcoin’s historical link to M2 money supply growth has weakened following the 2024 ETF launches. While altcoins may remain subdued, Ko projects that under CoinEx Research’s main forecast, Bitcoin could reach $180,000 by 2026, suggesting that top-tier cryptos may continue to attract capital even in a selective market.

Differing Views on Bitcoin’s Market Cycle

Meanwhile, views among market analysts remain divided regarding Bitcoin’s near-term prospects. Veteran trader Peter Brandt forecasts a prolonged bear market for Bitcoin, noting that over the past 15 years, the crypto has experienced five major surges, each followed by declines of roughly 80%. He also mentions that the current cycle is still unfolding and estimates that the next major bull market could peak around September 2029.

Adding to the analysis, Ali Martinez examines Bitcoin’s price cycle by looking at historical patterns in timing and scale. Traditionally, Bitcoin rises from a market low to the next high over roughly 1,064 days, followed by a decline from peak to the next low in about 364 days. Based on this cycle, Ali estimates that the market is currently in the 364-day downward phase, pointing to a potential bottom around October 2026, roughly 288 days away.

Ali also examines past bear markets to estimate potential declines. The 2017–2018 downturn saw Bitcoin fall about 84%, while the 2021–2022 cycle experienced a roughly 77% drop. Based on these patterns, he suggests that the next market bottom could reach around $37,500, representing an average retracement of approximately 80%.

Crypto Sees Unusual Q4 Decline and Market Reset

In the context of these patterns, Bitcoin has fallen more than 22% over the current quarter, which contrasts with its usual seasonal trend, as BTC has generally performed well during previous Q4s, with most years showing clear upward movement and only one quarter recording a modest increase. CryptoQuant attributes much of this decline to selling pressure from large holders, including a $5.1 billion ETF drawdown from its peak, followed by ongoing whale sales since October.

According to Milk Road, recent market movements indicate that much of the excess risk and weak positions have been cleared. While this does not automatically signal gains in 2026, historical cycles show that markets often emerge stronger after such substantial resets, creating more favorable conditions for future growth.