Bitcoin consolidates before Fed’s key decision

Bitcoin climbed between 1,000 and 2,000 dollars in a few sessions, briefly reaching 113,000 $. A breather that brings smiles back to crypto traders, but raises questions: is this rebound based on solid foundations or just a bubble of air? Behind the green candles, some see a technical recovery, others fear a fragile rally fueled by leverage more than by true spot demand.

Bitcoin crosses 113K$, a technical rebound that excites traders but rests on fragile ground

After a slump, the BTC price hit a local high at 113,279 $ according to TradingView. Several analysts immediately praised this move. Michaël van de Poppe welcomed the crossing of the twenty-day moving average and the 112,000 dollar threshold, while noting that gold had just reached new historic records and that, in his view, bitcoin would probably follow this dynamic. 

On his side, Crypto Tony considered that the area above 113,000 dollars represented a clear signal to open a long position on a daily basis.

But not everyone shares this optimism. Ted Pillows reminded that: 

The current BTC rally is mainly fueled by derivative contracts. Open interest is rising and the funding rate too, while the Coinbase premium remains neutral. As long as strong spot demand does not manifest, this rise will not be sustainable.

Recent figures confirm his words: bitcoin trades around 111,400 dollars after slipping to 110,800 late afternoon. The push toward 113,000 dollars now appears as a simple ephemeral spike.

The Fed, gold, and Wall Street also set BTC’s pace

If the crypto market breathes, it is also because macro plays in its favor. The US Federal Reserve is expected next week, and investors bet on a 25 basis points rate cut at 90%, or even 50 points at 10%. This hope has already propelled gold above 3,680 $ and the Nasdaq toward new highs.

However, some strategists fear a perverse effect. Ed Yardeni warned that stimulating an economy that doesn’t need stimulation won’t create more workers and risks inflating a speculative rally without solid foundations. 

At JPMorgan, it’s the same tune: the bank anticipates a potential “sell the news”, where investors would take profits at the announcement, weakening markets instead of strengthening them.

In this context, bitcoin seems to walk a tightrope, supported by liquidity hopes but monitored for excesses. The parallel with gold strengthens the bullish scenario, but warnings remind that caution remains necessary.

Crazy predictions: between dreams of 150K$ and structural fragility of the rally

Long-term expectations multiply. Michael Saylor, co-founder of MicroStrategy, stated that bitcoin could reach 150,000 $ by Christmas, a 35% increase from the current price. Tom Lee, analyst at Fundstrat, goes further talking about 200,000 $ in 2025, supported by accommodative monetary policy and the growing role of Ethereum. But these euphoric scenarios clash with more down-to-earth observations.

Glassnode observes that the current rise is not fueled by spot purchases, but by futures contracts. Its spot CVD indicator is declining, while the futures CVD registers repeated peaks. The firm judges this configuration structurally fragile as long as spot interest does not return.

Key figures to remember

• 113,279 $: local high reached before Wall Street;
• 90%: probability of a Fed rate cut (-25 bps);
• 368 M$: recent net flows into Bitcoin ETFs;
• 100,000 BTC: amount liquidated by whales in one month.
• 111,520 dollars: bitcoin price at the time of writing this article.

The law of volatility remains relentless in crypto trading. Anthony Scaramucci recently reminded: according to him, bitcoin could lose 40% before targeting 500,000 $. A vision that perfectly illustrates the paradox of this market: between lofty dreams and risks of vertigo, BTC continues to dance on its tightrope.