Bitcoin, Discipline And Luck, The Real Winning Trio

Turning a few tens of dollars invested in bitcoin into billions: the scenario is a dream. However, behind this simplistic equation, trader Techdev recalls a much less glamorous reality. In a viral post, he points out that achieving such a result would have required unwavering conviction and exceptional psychological resilience in the face of market shocks. A message that resonates as bitcoin has just crossed a new ATH above $123,000 on July 14, reigniting myths and speculation.

Holding over time : a rare feat

While bitcoin has soared again after the surprise appointment of a pro-crypto economist to the Fed, Techdev in his message posted on social network X and viewed more than 3.5 million times states : “if I put $100 in bitcoin in 2010, I’d have 2.8 billion today. No“.

“If I put $100 in Bitcoin in 2010 I’d have $2.8B now.”

No.

If you bought $100 of Bitcoin in 2010 and watched it go to:

$1k → $100k → $1.7M

and did nothing

Then watched $1.7M go to $170k

and still did nothing

Then watched $170k go to $110M

and still did nothing

Then…

— TechDev (@TechDev_52) August 4, 2025

The argument is clear. It is not enough to have invested early; you also need to have held your BTC through more than a decade of historic corrections.

To support his point, Techdev cites several market sequences illustrating the roller coaster rides experienced by long-term holders :

• An ascent to 1.7 million dollars, followed by a collapse to $170,000 ;
• A rebound up to 110 million dollars, before falling back to 18 million ;
• Daily fluctuations sometimes exceeding 10 % over the period.

According to data from Curvo, bitcoin price showed a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 102.79 % over 13 years. However, behind this impressive figure lies extreme volatility which would have pushed most investors to sell well before reaching colossal fortunes.

Only those able to keep their assets at all costs could have turned a small initial investment into historic wealth.

Experienced losses and forgotten fortunes

For entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano, Techdev’s analysis rings true : “everyone thinks they would have held their bitcoin from pennies to billions of dollars. Easier said than done“.

Everyone thinks they would have held bitcoin from pennies to billions of dollars.

Easier said than done.@TechDev_52 explains what would have really happened in that scenario. pic.twitter.com/7u4vp6V67O

— Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) August 6, 2025

Many commentators on the post have shared concrete experiences, mentioning BTC spent years ago on trivial purchases, now valued at millions. Others confessed to losing access to their wallets, taking with them fortunes now unrecoverable.

Erick Pinos, ecosystem manager at Nibiru Chain, adds a psychological dimension : “making the choice every day, every hour, not to sell, for years“.

I agree and this is why I don’t like “if you had bought x” posts

You have to make a choice every day, every hour, not to sell, for years

— Erick Pinos (@erickpinos) August 4, 2025

For some, the solution was complete and simple forgetfulness. Early investors who set aside their private keys without thinking for years, only discovering the astronomical value of their holdings once bitcoin was massively adopted. This disparity in trajectories reminds us that today’s bitcoin billionaires represent only a tiny fraction of the first buyers.

Techdev’s statements put into perspective the romanticized story of the “stroke of genius” of bitcoin’s early buyers. Investing early was never enough: discipline, psychology, and sometimes even luck played a decisive role. In a market where each new all-time high rekindles the same fantasies, this reminder could encourage rethinking long-term investment strategies, far from simplistic calculations and retrospective illusions.