Bitcoin Eyes $200K On Strong Q3-Q4 Catalysts

While institutional flows are reshaping its trajectory, Standard Chartered maintains a target of $200,000 for bitcoin by the end of this year. This forecast is based on a major shift : ETFs and listed companies now dictate the trend. Speculation is giving way to a strategic allocation logic. Thus, the market is changing hands, tempo, and profile.

The Institutional Engine : ETFs and Treasuries on the Offensive

While the British bank had anticipated a record price for bitcoin by December since April, in its latest analysis note, Standard Chartered warns of a decisive turning point for bitcoin : institutional flows, via ETFs and listed companies, have crossed a critical threshold.

For Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of crypto research, it is now these flows, rather than the post-halving cyclical narratives, that determine the market’s trajectory.

“We expect treasuries overall to buy more BTC in the third quarter than in the second, a positive driver for flows,” he writes. This assertion is based on concrete figures : in the second quarter of this year, nearly 245,000 BTC were absorbed by spot ETFs and institutional buyers.

Here is what precisely this dynamic reveals :

• 56,000 BTC were purchased in the second quarter by corporate treasuries excluding Strategy ;

• By comparison, Strategy accumulated about 69,000 BTC during the same period ;

• The growth of spot ETFs translated into $12.4 billion of inflows during the quarter, a figure higher than flows into gold ETFs, which were also rising in a tense geopolitical context ;

• According to Kendrick, this rise is explained by the passive leverage effect of a growing number of listed companies adopting strategies similar to those of Strategy ;

• Furthermore, hedge funds’ short positions on BTC futures in Chicago have barely increased, suggesting uncovered and non-speculative real demand.

Standard Chartered believes this trend will intensify in the second half. The widening investor profile, combined with resilient flows despite profit-taking, creates, according to Kendrick, a solid base for a sustained upward phase.

Bitcoin, supported by strategic allocation movements rather than halving narratives, is set to enter a new market configuration.

Monetary Policy, Stablecoin Law and Sovereign Purchases : The Underestimated Catalysts

Beyond flow data, Standard Chartered provides insight into political and macroeconomic factors likely to further propel bitcoin in the second half.

According to Kendrick, three levers could play a decisive role in the next cycle : “an early announcement by Trump regarding the succession of Jerome Powell at the Fed helm, the adoption of the bipartisan GENIUS stablecoin law, and increasing bitcoin purchases by sovereign states.”

Each of these elements could, in his view, heavily influence market expectations and strengthen bitcoin’s attractiveness in institutional portfolios. In particular, a quick designation of Powell’s successor could be interpreted as a signal for future monetary easing, increasing pressure on the dollar and, mechanically, supporting non-sovereign assets like BTC.

Standard Chartered also expects the GENIUS stablecoin law, currently under review by the US Congress, to become a major catalyst. By regulating the use of dollar-pegged stablecoins, this law would legitimize their use within traditional financial circuits.

Such a development could indirectly channel a portion of retail investors towards bitcoin, seen as the ecosystem’s central asset. Meanwhile, the bank notes increasingly clear signals of growing sovereign involvement, identified in regulatory filings like 13F, which could be confirmed in the next wave of publications expected in August.

These elements, although exogenous to the crypto market strictly speaking, could constitute underestimated catalysts by traditional investors. By altering liquidity conditions, regulatory rules, and even geopolitical power balances, they introduce unprecedented dynamics that disrupt the historical logics of the market, notably the famous post-halving cycles.

If these factors materialize, the hypothesis of a bitcoin at $200,000 by December could cease to be a marginal speculation to become a central scenario in institutional models. And in that case, the second half would not be a simple extension of the previous cycle, but the beginning of a new structural era for bitcoin, which has shown over $1,200 billion in unrealized profits.