Bitcoin: Traders Remain Cautious Despite Resistance at $110,000

Has bitcoin traded its dizzying leaps for the gait of a tired walker? Gone are the sudden surges that shook the crypto market, replaced now by repeated consolidations. Despite defending the $110,000 threshold, confidence does not seem to have returned. The queen of cryptos appears hesitant, caught between investor caution and contradictory signals. But then, where is this market really headed?

Between Bitcoin Resistance and Traders’ Caution

The bitcoin price (BTC) trades above $112,000 after a marked pullback towards $108,000. This rebound seems encouraging, but derivatives markets remain defensive. The options delta skew stands at 9%, meaning put options cost more than call options, signaling increased protection against declines.

On Monday, demand for puts surged, intensifying neutral or bearish strategies.

Regarding futures contracts, the funding rate reaches 11%, a neutral level but above Sunday’s bearish 4%. Appetite therefore remains limited, and caution still dominates. This contrast is striking: while gold and the S&P 500 continue to set new records, bitcoin struggles to convince.

This dissonance reflects the crypto market sentiment: an asset able to defend its supports but unable, for now, to reignite the bullish spark that draws crowds.

ETF Outflows and Appetite of Corporate Giants

In the crypto ecosystem, flows tell a paradoxical story. On one side, Bitcoin ETFs suffered $383 million in net outflows over two days, confirming institutional investors’ skepticism. Part of these funds appears to migrate to Ether, which captured $200 million in corporate reserves last week.

On the other side, some listed companies take advantage of volatility to accumulate. Strategy and Metaplanet bought 2,091 BTC for about $230 million, amounting to 66% of all bitcoins mined that week. Strategy now holds 638,460 BTC, valued at over $71 billion, with an estimated gain of 51.8% on its acquisition cost.

This contrast doesn’t stop there. Whales continue selling at a steady pace: over 100,000 BTC left their wallets in thirty days. This downward pressure contrasts with the enthusiasm shown by corporate giants, fueling a climate where conflicting signals blur the crypto market’s real direction.

Technical Support, Macro Divergence, and Dreams of $140,000

Bitcoin’s fate is also being decided on the charts. Currently, the price holds near the Bull Market Support Band, a historical indicator of a bullish cycle. As analyst Daan Crypto Trades reminds: “BTC price action remains indecisive. My base scenario still expects a sweep of monthly lows, which should then trigger panic and fear of dropping below the $100,000 threshold. However, I believe the $103,000 to $105,000 zone should at least offer support if price falls that far. This is also the zone I’d be interested in to open swing long positions.“

But not everything is rosy. A bearish divergence appears relative to global liquidity, and some anticipate a flow withdrawal in late September. Saint Pump warns of increased volatility until October, linked to Fed decisions. Technically, the RSI threatens to fall below 50, which could bring bitcoin down to $109,500, or even $98,000.

Key Figures to Remember

• Bitcoin remains above $112,000, with support at $108,000;
• Net outflows of $383M from Bitcoin ETFs last week;
• Strategy now holds 638,460 BTC, valued at $71 billion;
• Whales sold 100,000 BTC in thirty days.

Some observers remain markedly optimistic. For Kamran Asghar, bitcoin still follows a parallel channel that suggests significant growth. According to his analysis shared on X, the price should test this channel again and target the $140,000 zone, justifying keeping positions open to benefit from a possible bullish move.

Autumn approaches and eyes turn to “Uptober,” the month where bitcoin often surprises with rallies. Many hope for a bullish reversal. But some analysts remind that a fractal model suggests a risk of a crash in October, reminding that the season of clouds has not yet spoken its last word.