Avalanche (AVAX): Balance Under Pressure, Upcoming Direction? Analysis Of May 29, 2025

After a marked correction, Avalanche stagnates below key levels: between selling pressure and a latent bullish bias. Find our complete technical analysis and AVAX outlook.

Technical Analysis of Avalanche (AVAX)

Spot Price	≈ $23.50	The price rises slowly while remaining in a waiting zone with no real recovery signal.
Last Weekly Changes	≈ +2%	Slight gain over the week, sign of a market trying to stabilize.
Last Weekly Spot Volumes	≈ 756M (+0.33%)	Stable volumes, indicating moderate interest without strong momentum.
Long-term Trend (SMA 200)	Neutral	Trend in a stabilization phase after a long decline, awaiting a recovery signal.
Medium-term Trend (SMA 50)	Neutral	Structure with no clear direction, reflecting a period of waiting and consolidation.
Short-term Trend (SMA 20)	Bullish	Rebound showing active short-term buyer flow, however progression remains limited.
Momentum	Neutral	Weak and stable momentum, with slight buying pressure without clear acceleration.

The spot price of AVAX stabilizes around $23.50, showing a slight weekly increase of about 2%, in a context of nearly unchanged volumes around 756 million dollars. The long-term trend remains neutral, marking a transition phase after a prolonged bearish period. In the medium term, the market moves without a clear direction, reflecting a lack of conviction. In the short term, a buying dynamic is visible, although progress remains contained. Momentum remains weak but balanced, without notable acceleration, indicating a watchful market where flows are present but lightly engaged.

Avalanche (AVAX) Technical Levels

Resistances	$27 / $29 / $38 / $45	Potential distribution zones; surpassing them would open the way for bullish extension.
Supports	$21 / $19 / $17 / $14.5	Historic demand zones; breaking them would expose to a risk of continued decline.
Monthly Pivot Point	$19.5	Reference level for the monthly trend.
High Value Area	$35.3	High volume zone; upper boundary of a market balance, beyond which an imbalance may emerge.
Low Value Area	$22	High volume zone; lower limit of a market balance, beyond which an imbalance may emerge.

AVAX faces several major technical levels. Resistances at $27, $29, $38, and $45 correspond to potential distribution zones, whose crossing could favor a bullish recovery. Supports at $21, $19, $17, and $14.5 represent historic demand zones, and their break would increase the risk of a continued decline. The monthly pivot point at $19.5 serves as a benchmark for the underlying trend. The low value area at $22 marks the lower boundary of a market equilibrium, while the high value area at $35.3 forms the upper boundary. Breaking either boundary could cause an imbalance likely to trigger a significant directional move.

The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elyfe, and 0xhugzer, investors and educators on the cryptocurrency market.

Derivatives Analysis (AVAX/USDT)

Open Interest	Stable	Position stability, reflecting a consolidating or waiting market.
CVD	Sell-side dominance	Sell dominance: aggressive sell orders dominate trading.
Liquidation	Low, long side	Low liquidations, but oriented longs, consistent with dominant selling pressure.
Funding Rate	Slightly positive	Slight bullish bias, moderate premium for long positions.

Open positions on AVAX/USDT contracts remain stable, a sign of a waiting or consolidating market. Flows reveal sell-side dominance with aggressive sell orders. Liquidations remain low but mainly affect longs, consistent with this bearish pressure. Despite this, the slightly positive funding rate reflects a persistent slight bullish bias among traders.

Indicator	Status	Comment
Sell-side liquidation zone	≈ $24.90 / $25.20 – $25.50 / $26 – $26.30 / $26.80 – $27.20	Order concentration zone; reaching these levels could cause increased volatility.
Buy-side liquidation zone	≈ $22 – $21 / $20.70 – $20.50 / $20.30 – $20 / $19.10 – $18	Order concentration zone; reaching these levels could cause increased volatility.

Several liquidation zones are identified on the market that could amplify volatility if approached. On the sell side, order concentration levels are at $24.90, then between $25.20 and $25.50, $26 and $26.30, as well as between $26.80 and $27.20. On the downside, buy-side liquidation zones are at $22 – $21, $20.70 – $20.50, $20.30 – $20, and finally between $19.10 and $18. Reaching these key levels could trigger rapid market reactions.

Forecasts for Avalanche (AVAX) Price

Bullish scenario:

• Conditions: Maintaining above $21.
• Targets: $27 / $29 / $36 – $38.
• Potential: Approximately +63% from current level.

Bearish scenario:

• Conditions: Break of the $21 support.
• Targets: $18 / $15.5 – $14.6.
• Potential: Drop up to -37% from current level.

Comment:

The bias remains bullish, but US macroeconomic indicators as well as news related to the global geopolitical context will be decisive to confirm this scenario.

Conclusion

AVAX moves in a fragile balance, with dominant selling pressure despite a persistent bullish bias. Interest remains moderate and without clear momentum, while several sensitive zones could amplify volatility if triggered. The macroeconomic and geopolitical context will play a key role in the future market direction. In this context, it will be essential to closely monitor price reactions at strategic levels to confirm or adjust current forecasts.

Finally, remember that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria, and cryptocurrency prices can change rapidly according to other more fundamental factors.