Bernstein Maintains $150K Bitcoin Target for 2026 Despite Market Pullback

In an economic context marked by uncertainty and increased volatility, fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market raise many questions among financial observers. While the price of the flagship digital asset is going through a turbulent zone, analysts from the research and brokerage firm Bernstein have clarified their position. Far from giving in to widespread pessimism, they reiterate their confidence in bitcoin’s fundamentals.

An Analysis That Puts the Current Market Pullback into Perspective

The team led by Gautam Chhugani maintained their forecast, estimating that the current decline does not in any way challenge the long-term trajectory. According to them, Bernstein confirms its $150,000 target for bitcoin in 2026, emphasizing that the observed correction is more akin to a temporary confidence crisis than a systemic network failure.

To understand the analysts’ position, one must first examine their reading of the current situation. Unlike previous bear markets that shook the ecosystem, the current correction is described by Bernstein as the “weakest bear case in bitcoin’s history“. This assertion is based on a factual observation of the market’s health.

In a recent note addressed to their clients, the experts highlight the notable absence of the usual negative catalysts. In previous crises, the sector was often shaken by high-profile bankruptcies, the discovery of hidden leverage, or major systemic failures affecting central players. However, the brokerage notes that none of these elements are present today. Nothing has “exploded” and no toxic financial secrets have been revealed.

This analysis suggests that the price weakness does not stem from a structural problem but rather a cautious market sentiment. It is, according to the report’s terms, a crisis the community inflicts on itself, even though the fundamental indicators have never seemed so aligned.

Institutional Factors Supporting the $150,000 Target

If Bernstein maintains its bitcoin price target of $150,000 by the end of 2026, it is largely due to an unprecedented institutional environment.

The report explains why this period is different from previous ones. Bitcoin now benefits from strong support from major financial institutions, marked by the arrival and success of Bitcoin ETFs.

These tools allow traditional investors easier access to bitcoin. They constitute a reliable and robust way to bring traditional finance money into this market.

Moreover, analysts highlight the continued involvement of major global asset managers and increasing participation from corporate treasuries. Added to this is a U.S. political context with a president openly supportive of bitcoin.

For Bernstein, these elements provide tangible evidence that adoption is progressing regardless of short-term price movements.

However, the report notes with a touch of irony that the media have resumed their “obituary” habits, prematurely declaring the end of interest in cryptocurrencies in favor of new technological trends.

Bitcoin Compared to Gold and Competition from Artificial Intelligence

One current point of friction lies in bitcoin’s underperformance relative to gold during recent periods of macroeconomic volatility. Faced with this observation, Bernstein explains that BTC is still mainly trading as a risk asset sensitive to liquidity, not as an established safe haven asset like the yellow metal.

Tightening financial conditions, coupled with rising interest rates, have mechanically favored assets such as precious metals or stocks related to artificial intelligence (AI).

However, analysts believe the current infrastructure, notably through ETFs, is perfectly positioned to capture and absorb increased liquidity as the economic environment improves.

Furthermore, the idea that AI would make bitcoin obsolete is firmly refuted. On the contrary, Bernstein analysts argue that the rise of models like OpenClaw foreshadows a “agentic” digital environment. 

In this near future where autonomous software agents will interact, blockchains and programmable wallets appear as the ideal financial infrastructure, readable by machines.

Traditional banking systems, limited by closed APIs and complex legacy systems, seem less suited to this new digital economy than blockchain technology.

Risks Related to Quantum Computing and Miners

The report addresses fears related to quantum computing. Bernstein admits that preparation is necessary for these threats but reminds that bitcoin is not the only target: banks and government systems face the same risk.

Everyone will therefore have to update their security simultaneously. Thanks to its public code and support from powerful investors, bitcoin is fully capable of adapting, just like traditional finance.

Finally, there is no concern about the financial health of miners or large companies investing on credit. The report cites examples like MicroStrategy, which are solid enough to withstand even a severe and prolonged crisis (for example, if bitcoin dropped to $8,000 for five years).

As for miners, they no longer depend solely on bitcoin: they now use part of their energy for artificial intelligence, which secures their revenues.

Structural Resilience to Forced Sales

In conclusion to their analysis, Bernstein experts estimate that the risks of forced sales, which generally amplify crypto market declines, have considerably decreased.

The solidity of current holders, whether companies that have structured their debt or miners who have diversified their income, provides a safety cushion to the market.

This structural resilience reinforces the analysts’ view: the current pullback does not threaten the asset’s trajectory. Bernstein confirms its $150,000 target for bitcoin in 2026, considering that the foundations for future appreciation are not only intact but strengthened by institutional and technological adoption. 

Towards a Maturation of Market Cycles?

Bernstein’s analysis shows that bitcoin’s functioning is changing. Even if its price continues to fluctuate, the market today is much stronger and better protected than in its early days when it was more fragile.

This maturity is explained by the combination of three elements: the arrival of regulated financial tools (ETFs), the rapprochement with future technologies like artificial intelligence, and much more professional management from sector companies (such as miners). All this proves that bitcoin is becoming a serious and well-established asset.