Bitcoin: 8% of the Supply Is on the Move, a Critical Zone Has Been Reached

When more than 8% of bitcoin changes hands in a few days, it is never just a simple technical twitch. It is a massive shift of digital wealth, almost a silent earthquake that speaks volumes about the market’s pulse. This week, the network experienced one of its most striking supply movements since the creation of the protocol. A true reshuffling of the cards, while the markets anxiously await the Fed’s decision in December.

A Historic Bitcoin Supply Migration That Awakens Old Memories

More than 8% of bitcoin changed hands in a week, while spot Bitcoin ETFs record net outflows of $1.2 billion, one of the worst results since their launch. Taken together, these two movements tell the same story: seeing so much BTC circulate in such a short time is no accident. It amounts to a real large-scale change of ownership, a sign that something is brewing deeply in the market.

This dynamic recalls two notable episodes: March 2020 and December 2018. At the time, bitcoin traded around $5,000 and $3,500 respectively. In both cases, these massive transfers marked a local bottom, followed by a slow but solid accumulation phase. And history has shown that these lows often heralded a new all-time high a few months later.

However, not everything should be interpreted as a pure market signal. Joe Burnett, analyst and Bitcoin strategy director at Semler Scientific, points out that nearly half of these movements could come from an internal wallet migration related to Coinbase. A technical operation, certainly massive, but less revealing of a sudden shift in sentiment. Nevertheless, the picture remains impressive: a blockchain stirring, a market holding its breath.

A Market on a Knife Edge, Suspended on the Fed

While transactions continue, investors walk a tightrope. Conflicting messages about a possible monetary easing in December maintain a palpable tension. Nic Puckrin, respected analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, sums up the atmosphere well: the market is on a “knife’s edge.” Every new economic data pushes traders to revise their expectations.

In one week, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rose from 50% to 82%, according to CME FedWatch. A sharp reversal that reignited risk appetite and boosted bitcoin from $81,000 to $87,000. A welcome, but fragile, breath. The prospect of a “Santa rally” fuels optimism, while others fear a “Santa dump” if the Fed disappoints.

The tension is even higher as the December 10 decision will not only concern rates. It will also serve as a political and economic signal for early 2025. The crypto market, hypersensitive to liquidity cost, will immediately feel the consequences.

When Technical and Psychology Clash

Between internal migration, whale repositioning, and Fed speculation, the Bitcoin ecosystem is at a pivotal moment. Volumes suggest a strategic reorganization rather than panic. Yet, the slightest announcement could tip the balance. This duality between robust fundamentals and emotional volatility spices the market.

And that is precisely what makes this movement exceptional: it blends technical signals, tense macro context, and collective anticipation. If history repeats, such a redistribution could once again herald an accumulation cycle. But BTC never lets itself be locked into a pattern. It surprises, especially when everyone thinks they have figured out the tune.