Bitcoin: A Relative Buying Opportunity Despite the Panic, According to k33

Bitcoin is undergoing a brutal correction phase, with a 36% drop since October 2025. However, according to K33 Research, this drop creates a relative buying opportunity, with the selling approaching saturation. Here is why this period could be ideal for investors.

The impact of bitcoin’s brutal drop

Bitcoin is currently experiencing a dizzying fall, even reaching a floor of $82,000 to $80,500 on November 21, 2025! An unprecedented level since early 2024. This drop is accompanied by record transaction volumes, exceeding $14.3 billion in a single day, and massive outflows from ETPs, with a peak of 13,302 BTC in 24 hours. These indicators reflect seller capitulation, often a sign of the end of a bear cycle.

K33 Research notes that the open interest on perpetual contracts reached an annual high of 325,000 BTC before falling back to 300,000 BTC, signaling a reduction in long positions and a market cleanup. Furthermore, the correlation between bitcoin and equity markets has strengthened, but bitcoin experiences sharper declines. This is a sign of persistent selling pressure in a risk-reduction environment.

According to Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, this intense selling phase is nearing saturation. Panic signals, such as high volumes and massive outflows, suggest the market might soon find a floor, paving the way for bitcoin stabilization or gradual recovery.

Why is bitcoin a strong relative buy despite volatility?

Bitcoin’s recent drop has created a disconnect between its price and fundamentals. This underperformance, especially compared to the Nasdaq where bitcoin is now 30% weaker than in October, makes it a relative buying opportunity for long-term investors. Several structural factors support this thesis:

1. Growing adoption of bitcoin by financial institutions, facilitated by regulations like the Clarity Act that reinforce its legitimacy as a safe haven asset;
2. Upcoming political catalysts, such as integrating bitcoin into the portfolios of leading banks, which could widen access and stimulate demand;
3. Finally, derivative data shows reduced leverage and declining open interest, which limits risks of cascading liquidations. 

K33 Research believes this combination of factors makes bitcoin a strong relative buy, despite current volatility. Institutional investors and long-term holders could use this phase to accumulate BTC at attractive levels.

What price for BTC in 2026?

Forecasts for bitcoin in 2026 vary among analysts, but most agree on a medium-term uptrend. Some anticipate a price range between $88,403 and $98,000 for 2026, with potential growth of 11.45% if BTC reaches its high target.

Others, however, forecast a wider range between $150,000 and $230,000, due to institutional adoption. These optimistic forecasts rest on two pillars:

• The continuous influx of capital through ETFs;
• Growing adoption by institutions.

The recent bitcoin drop, though brutal, offers a relative buying opportunity according to K33 Research. With forecasts up to $200,000 in 2026, are the conditions for a future BTC bull run already in place?