Bitcoin: American Inflation Threatens the 80,000 $ Threshold

Bitcoin approaches a decisive threshold as markets await new American inflation indicators. After several positive sessions, capital inflows into spot ETFs have sharply slowed, reducing support for prices. On Friday, PMI indices and household inflation forecasts could change investor expectations before the next Federal Reserve meeting. Maintaining the 80,000 dollar level will therefore also depend on these economic signals.

Bitcoin Defends 80,000 Dollars Against Institutional Acquisition Costs

The price of bitcoin moves around 80,000 dollars, a level that draws institutional investors’ attention. According to the Glassnode report published on October 21, this threshold approaches the average acquisition costs of several holder categories. American spot ETFs display an estimated cost basis of 81,500 dollars. Meanwhile, treasuries of companies followed by Glassnode hold their digital assets at an average cost close to 80,200 dollars.

The massive sell-off on October 15 brought the market near this reference zone. The price closed around 80,100 dollars after briefly falling below the ETFs’ estimated cost basis. This movement tested buyers’ ability to defend their positions. However, the market recovered to a level close to institutional acquisition costs, without confirming a lasting recovery.

Binance’s order book data provide another perspective on this battle. The main cluster of spot buy orders was concentrated around 80,000 dollars before the sharp drop. Selling pressure absorbed much of it, but new orders appeared on October 20. Their volume remains lower than before the drop, which limits the scope of this support.

It is also necessary to distinguish acquisition costs from orders displayed on platforms. An ETF’s cost basis corresponds to the average cost of its assets, while a company’s reflects its past purchases. However, orders in an order book can disappear at any moment. Maintaining the price above 80,000 dollars does not guarantee that buyers will sustainably defend this zone.

Bitcoin ETF Flows Slow Before Inflation Data

Capital inflows into American spot ETFs have sharply lost momentum. According to Farside Investors data, these products recorded 526.7 million dollars in net inflows on October 19. On the following day, inflows remained positive but dropped to only 23.2 million dollars. This decrease represents a 95.6% decline in one session and highlights the recent demand slowdown.

Over these two days, ETFs still attracted 549.9 million dollars in total. Thus, it is not an entirely negative trend, as both sessions recorded net inflows. However, this development shows new inflows are no longer growing at the same pace. For bitcoin, the question is now whether institutional buyers will continue to support prices despite this loss of momentum.

Glassnode also notes a decrease in activity over a longer period. The average trading volume on spot ETFs, calculated over 30 days, now represents less than a quarter of its level observed a year earlier. Corporate purchases of government bonds since June have remained below 10% of the peak reached in November 2024. These figures reflect a broader slowdown in some institutional investment activities.

This development occurs as several American economic indicators are due for release. On Thursday, an auction of inflation-linked Treasury securities, amounting to 26 billion dollars and maturing in five years, will assess demand for these bonds. On Friday, preliminary PMI indices and final inflation forecasts from the University of Michigan will complement available data. These events could shift rate expectations and influence flows into risky assets.

American Inflation Could Change Market Expectations

Recent inflation data show that price pressures remain significant. The consumer price index rose 3.7% year-on-year in September. Moreover, the preliminary University of Michigan survey places one-year inflation expectations at 4.7%. Longer-term forecasts reach 3.5%, maintaining investors’ concerns regarding price trends.

Upcoming releases will verify whether these expectations evolve. Friday’s preliminary PMI indices, expected at 9:45 a.m., will provide indications on prices charged by companies. The final Michigan survey, scheduled at 10 a.m., will clarify household expectations. If these data exceed previous estimates, markets could anticipate more persistent inflationary pressures and reassess their monetary outlook.

The Federal Reserve’s policy is another key element in this sequence. In September, the American central bank set its target rate range between 3.75% and 4%. According to a Reuters survey, 94 out of 100 economists surveyed expect rates to hold at the October 28 meeting. Even without immediate changes, the new data could modify expectations about future decisions.

Bond yields and the dollar could then react to the releases. According to Glassnode, the two-year U.S. bond yield approached 4.8% on October 20, after rising by more than one percentage point since early 2026. High inflation numbers could intensify this pressure. Conversely, more moderate indicators could ease yields and provide a more favorable environment for risky assets.

Resistance and Support Levels Clarify Possible Scenarios

Above 80,000 dollars, several levels could slow price advances. Glassnode identifies an excess supply zone between 85,000 and 87,500 dollars. Investors who acquired their assets six to twelve months ago have an average price close to 86,700 dollars. Moreover, potential liquidations on futures markets concentrate between 85,000 and 87,000 dollars, reinforcing the importance of this zone.

With improved economic data, the market could attempt to reach this upper range. If Michigan inflation expectations remain stable or decrease and PMI price components retreat, yields could lose momentum. A drop in the two-year yield, accompanied by a stable or weakening dollar, would strengthen this scenario. Bitcoin could then test the 85,000 to 87,500 dollar zone, provided demand follows.

Crossing 87,500 dollars with higher volumes and repeated ETF inflows would be an additional signal. It would indicate buyers absorb some of the supply above institutional cost bases. However, a price increase alone would not confirm this move. Persistent inflows and bond market reactions would remain decisive factors.

Conversely, higher inflation expectations could strengthen selling pressure. If PMI prices rise, yields and the dollar increase, and bitcoin ETFs register net outflows, buyers could struggle more to defend the 80,000 dollar level. A close below this threshold would bring the liquidation zone near 79,600 dollars to the forefront. The market’s real average, estimated at 77,600 dollars, would then constitute another reference level.

The Fed Meeting Approaches Amid a Still Fragile Market

Market reactions will also depend on how economic data interrelate. A less well-received five-year TIPS auction could push real yields higher, even if inflation expectations remain stable. This is why the evolution of the five-year real yield and the equilibrium inflation rate deserve special attention. Their combination will help better understand investor reactions before Friday’s releases.

The scenario remains conditional, as some recent indicators have sent different signals. On October 15, a favorable producer price report coincided with a decline in the ten-year yield to 5.087%. The dollar also retreated after reaching an 18-month high. This episode reminds that positive economic data can quickly change expectations and influence financial conditions.

In the coming days, the market’s ability to maintain current levels will depend on several factors. More regular inflows into bitcoin ETFs, combined with lower yields, could facilitate a return to higher resistance levels. Conversely, persistent inflation and tightening financial conditions could weaken demand. The Fed meeting on October 28 will then shed new light on monetary perspectives.

Ultimately, Bitcoin remains close to the acquisition costs of several institutional investors, but this support is not enough to confirm a recovery. Friday’s inflation data will verify if demand can absorb supply between 85,000 and 87,500 dollars. If 80,000 dollars breaks, levels of 79,600 and then 77,600 dollars could regain prominence. The reaction of yields, the dollar, and ETFs will determine the next movement before the Fed decision.