Bitcoin Analysts Turn Bullish Again, but Past Cycles Flash a Warning

Three influential analysts believe that bitcoin has found its floor after falling below 60,000 dollars in July. The price returning around 65,000 dollars fuels their optimism. However, market history and the weight of leverage do not yet allow shouting victory.

Bitcoin, three analysts converge around 65,000 dollars

The scenario of a bottom does not come out of nowhere. As early as August 4, 10x Research estimated that bitcoin could confirm a market bottom as early as August, provided it preserves its technical supports.

Three days later, CryptoPotato noted an unusual convergence between Ali Martinez, Michaël van de Poppe, and Merlijn The Trader.

Ali Martinez decides flatly: “The bitcoin bull market is here.” The media reports that the analyst relies on improved on-chain data, the weakening of selling pressure, and a TD Sequential buy signal on the July monthly chart.

This technical indicator counts a sequence of candles to identify a possible exhaustion of the current trend. It had already signaled the 2022 bottom, but no indicator produces an automatic result.

Michaël van de Poppe remains more conditional. On August 7, he described bitcoin still trapped in its consolidation zone and considered it necessary to surpass 65,000 dollars to accelerate toward 67,000 dollars.

Merlijn The Trader is more categorical: according to him, the three tests of the same support in the third quarter reproduce the structure observed in 2023 and 2024 before a rise in the fourth quarter.

The nuance matters. These three readings do not rely on the same method and do not amount to collective confirmation. However, they tell the same story: as long as the support holds, the market can turn its long hesitation into a recovery.

Whale purchases give weight to the bullish scenario

Accumulation strengthens the floor thesis, without yet validating it. Wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have added more than 20,000 BTC accumulated since July 29, according to data from Santiment relayed by Cointribune. As of August 7, this stock represented about 1.2 billion dollars.

The movement has a simple reading. Large holders absorb part of the supply while the price remains stuck below its resistance. If sellers become scarce at the same time, even moderate demand can be enough to push bitcoin higher. That is why Ali Martinez associates long-term accumulation and a decline in selling pressure.

The price even briefly regained the edge over the monitored threshold. CoinGecko displayed 65,198 dollars on August 10 at 6:47 UTC. This passage is not enough: Van de Poppe demands a clear break of the recent high, not a simple incursion above 65,000 dollars.

The market therefore has visible fuel, but ignition remains uncertain. A solid close above the zone, accompanied by spot purchases, would strengthen the recovery. A rejection would immediately put July’s floor under pressure again.

Bitcoin’s history and leverage prevent shouting victory

The counter-scenario boils down to two numbers. CoinGecko historical data place bitcoin at 124,739.81 dollars on October 7, 2025, then at 58,566.09 dollars on July 1, 2026. The decline between these two points reaches 53.05%. A rebound towards 65,000 dollars therefore repairs only a small part of the fall, not the entire trend.

CryptoPotato also recalls a familiar mechanism: bitcoin often surprises when consensus becomes too comfortable. Large rebounds sometimes started in extreme distrust, while excessive optimism preceded violent corrections. This historical observation predicts nothing by itself. It mainly invites distinguishing an encouraging signal from a verdict.

Leverage adds a more immediate fragility. On Binance, futures contract volumes recently reached 57.82 billion dollars, compared to 6.08 billion on the spot market. These products allow multiplying exposure with less capital, but they also amplify losses and forced liquidations. A breakout can therefore accelerate in both directions.

In short, whale accumulation, the return above 65,000 dollars, and the calming of sales draw a credible floor. However, the weight of futures contracts on Binance and the scale of the correction since October keep the market tense. The bullish scenario is gaining ground. It still must survive the price test.