$200K Bitcoin? A Whale Bets $23 Million on a Massive BTC Surge

A whale just bet 23.7 million dollars on an explosive scenario: a bitcoin at 200,000 dollars by the end of the year. This massive bet, structured through a complex options strategy, shakes up market expectations as BTC trades below 120,000 dollars.

Why an investor is betting 23 million $ on a bitcoin at 200,000 dollars

The position on bitcoin is based on a bull call spread between 140,000 dollars and 200,000 dollars, revealed by Deribit Insights. Indeed, the buyer acquired call options at 140K, financed by selling calls at 200K, for an expiration in December 2025. This strategy reduces the initial cost while setting an upper limit to the gain.

However, for this setup to be profitable, BTC must exceed 140,000 dollars, with a maximum gain if the price reaches or exceeds 200,000 dollars. Such an operation, valued at 23.7 million dollars, represents one of the most significant open interest positions in the Bitcoin options market.

This reading suggests a strong conviction of a return to the all-time high, or even beyond. Notably, the position is distinguished by fine tuning, without exaggerated leverage, which strengthens its strategic rather than speculative nature.

Massive liquidations on bitcoin: towards 110,000 dollars?

Following this bet, bitcoin experienced a liquidation of 130 million dollars in long positions, triggered as soon as it fell below 115,000 dollars. This zone concentrated a strong liquidity accumulation, acting as a technical support threshold. Moreover, the purge of longs coincided with reactivated spot buying signals within the same range.

Order book data reveal active defense zones between 113,500 dollars and 110,530 dollars. These thresholds constitute the next critical supports in case of a sustained break below 115,000 dollars. In this regard, analyst Daan Crypto Trades points out that any drift below this level could alter the prevailing bullish sentiment.

On the other hand, as long as this zone holds, the scenario of a reinforced local floor remains valid, supporting the potential for a gradual rebound towards 130K.

What options tell us about the next BTC bull run

The analysis of Bitcoin options for December 2025, notably the dominant position between 140K and 200K, reveals institutional positioning that anticipates a structured bullish cycle. This configuration suggests that the market expects a gradual return to a new ATH, rather than a sudden pump.

The strike levels used (140K on purchase, 200K on sale) trace the corridor of a moderate bullish scenario, in which BTC would surpass 130K by the end of 2024 to target 180-200K by mid-2025.

Three fundamental levers support this reading:

• Reduction of supply after the bitcoin halving;
• Growing influx of spot ETFs;
• Interest rates stabilized or even declining.

The bet on bitcoin reaching $200,000 by year-end therefore does not reflect irrational euphoria but a rational anticipation of a market dynamic.

Three days after Trump Media invested $2 billion in bitcoin, there is a bold $23 million bet on BTC revealing the investors’ assumed optimism towards the crypto queen. Between institutional strategy and technical signals, the road remains full of uncertainties. Is the surge towards a new ATH a mirage or the beginning of a new cycle?