Bitcoin: Bitwise’s Bold Prediction

Bitwise published a report predicting that bitcoin will surpass the one million dollar mark before 2035.

Bitcoin and the fiat ponzi

Like BlackRock’s CEO, Bitwise views bitcoin as a digital store of value allowing protection against perpetual monetary devaluation.

Bitwise does not deny that payments in BTC could also gain popularity, but it is indeed its role as digital gold that is at the heart of its investment thesis. In this regard, the most important macroeconomic factors to consider are debt, deficits, inflation, and dollar hegemony.

As the legendary investor Ray Dalio wrote in June 2025:

When countries have too much debt, lowering interest rates and devaluing the currency that the debt is denominated in is the preferred path government policy makers are most likely to take, so it pays to bet on it happening.

Ray Dalio

This is also what Bitwise thinks, putting things into perspective in its report through some very telling statistics:

• In its first 200 years, the United States accumulated a debt of 650 billion dollars. Today, this figure stands at 36,200 billion dollars.
• Half of the U.S. debt was accumulated over the last ten years.
• Interest on U.S. debt amounts to 952 billion dollars per year, representing the fourth largest budget item (it will be the first budget in France as of this year…).

Simply put, money creation grows on an exponential curve—wrap your head around that if you can.

The energy shortage

It is so. The fiat system is a ponzi that requires perpetual economic growth for inflation to remain minimal. Except growth can’t be decreed.

Growth = Production = Machines = Energy = Oil

The lifeblood of the economy is gasoline. It is indispensable to fuel the hundreds of millions of trucks supplying market stalls around the world.

Problem is, global gasoline production has been stagnant since the conventional oil peak of 2007. Without growth to face the fiat ponzi, inflation is inevitable.

Bitwise analysts do not believe the United States is heading for hyperinflation or another catastrophic scenario. But they see no way how rising debt and deficits could have any result other than eroding the purchasing power of the dollar (-40% over the last ten years…).

Bitwise did not fail to point out that the new U.S. administration, elected with a mandate to slash public spending, has not succeeded: If one of the world’s biggest entrepreneurs (Elon Musk), combined with an iconoclastic president unafraid to shake the established order, cannot even slightly slow spending, we doubt anyone else will succeed.

Consequently, Bitwise anticipates increased demand for assets such as gold and bitcoin. The report notes that these two assets have been leading since 2020, suggesting investors are already preparing for a more inflationary world.

The twilight of the dollar

The report adds that the evolution of the composition of nations’ exchange reserves could also favor bitcoin.

The decline of the dollar’s share in international exchange reserves has been a major discussion topic for several years. The cause: China, Russia, and the BRICS no longer want to finance the empire’s debt.

We do not claim that the U.S. dollar will necessarily lose its role as the main global reserve currency. Data rather suggests that its dominance weakens over time, making room for other assets and currencies.

Bitwise

Bitwise believes it is highly likely that bitcoin will be part of these new assets. In fact, the process is already underway. Over a dozen countries, including the United States, now hold bitcoins.

We are talking about a 12 trillion dollar cake (global reserves). Knowing that bitcoin already weighs 2.3 trillion dollars and that the U.S. government is about to swap part of its gold for bitcoins…

We are still far from this in the old continent, but things seem to be moving in the right direction. The governor of the Czech central bank, for example, wants to add it to its reserves. Problem is, the ECB president opposes this.

“Not to mention the German government, which dumped 50,000 BTC at an average price of $58,000. A blunder by the Greens, who still fail to see that the Bitcoin industry is the missing link in the energy transition…

One million dollars per bitcoin

In summary, Bitwise expects bitcoin to be the best performing asset of the next decade. The target is 1.3 million dollars per bitcoin by 2035. This corresponds to an average annual growth rate of 28%.

Bitwise believes these institutional investors will allocate between 1% and 5% of their portfolios to bitcoin. That is between 1,000 and 5,000 billion dollars since the World Bank estimates these investors control around 100,000 billion dollars in assets.

This process has already begun. Bitcoin ETFs now hold 170 billion dollars in bitcoins. A small down payment on the persistent and sustained demand that is anticipated.

There will never be more than 21 million bitcoins, of which 19.9 million are already in circulation. The annual inflation rate of bitcoin is currently 0.8% and will drop to 0.4% in 2028, then 0.2% in 2032 (the supply halves every four years). For comparison, the annual inflation rate of gold fluctuates between 1% and 2%.

Let’s finish by emphasizing that Bitwise’s most optimistic scenario is 2.9 million dollars per bitcoin. This represents an annual appreciation rate of 39%. If this is the case, your savings will be multiplied by 26 in ten years! Don’t miss our article: Bitcoin: The Bull Run continues!