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Bitcoin bounces back by 6.5% following its Halving: Crypto analysis of April 23, 2024

Tue 23 Apr 2024 ▪ 5 min of reading ▪ by Family Trading Partnership
Investissement

While the famous Bitcoin halving has taken place, the original cryptocurrency has sparked interest from buyers, once again maintaining its price around $60,000. Let’s analyze together the future prospects for the BTC price.

Bitcoin Crypto ETF

Situation of Bitcoin (BTC)

After facing a bearish period starting at $72,000, the Bitcoin price began a short-term downward trend, bringing its price slightly below $60,000. It is at this price level that Bitcoin seems to have garnered buyers’ interest, which pushed its price above $67,000. This level was highlighted in the analysis of April 16, 2024. It is interesting to note that this price corresponds to a resistance, and represents the most significant value area since the $42,000 one. 

At the time of writing this text, Bitcoin is trading around $66,150. Reaching this level seems to indicate a certain capitulation of the buyers. However, it is reassuring to note that Bitcoin’s price has stayed above the $60,000 support threshold. Consequently, the possibility of a continuation of the bullish trend remains conceivable. To reinforce this outlook, a bounce of BTC above the 50-day moving average would be favorable. Likewise, a rebound in Bitcoin momentum would be just as comforting.

BTCUSD Daily Chart

The current technical analysis was performed in collaboration with Elie FT, an investor and trader passionate about the cryptocurrency market. Today a trainer at Family Trading, a community of thousands of proprietary traders active since 2017. Here you’ll find Lives, educational content, and mutual support about financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.

Focus on derivatives (BTCUSDT)

The open interest on BTC/USDT contracts decreased by more than 27% before stabilizing, and then slightly increased since Saturday, April 20. This recent rise was accompanied by an increase in Bitcoin’s price, with no significant liquidations. All these data may suggest that the majority of traders are confident in this latest movement. As for funding rates, they fluctuate between positive and negative, indicating that the BTC/USDT contracts are aligned with their underlying asset, thus demonstrating a balance between buyers and sellers.

Bitcoin Open Interest / Liquidations & Funding rate
Bitcoin Open Interest / Liquidations & Funding rate

The liquidation heatmap of the past month shows that BTC/USDT has crossed a notable liquidation area, between $66,000 and $67,000. It seems that a selling interest imposed itself at this level, suggesting a potential reversal period. Currently, the closest and most significant liquidation zone is located above the current price, precisely around $72,000. To identify the significant area below, it would be necessary to delve deeper, especially around $58,000. If the market approaches these levels, we could witness a massive triggering of orders, potentially increasing the volatility of the cryptocurrency. These zones therefore represent major points of interest for investors.

BTC Liquidation Heatmap (1 month)
BTC Liquidation Heatmap (1 month)

Assumptions for the Bitcoin (BTC) price

  • As long as the Bitcoin price manages to stay above $60,000, one can anticipate the breakout of the $67,000 mark. The next resistance to consider, if the bullish movement continues, would be in a price range around $68,000 and $69,000. Even higher, one can look at $71,300. At this stage, that would represent an increase of over 8%.
  • If the Bitcoin price does not maintain itself above $60,000, we could consider support from buyer interest around $58,000. The next level to consider, if the bearish movement persists, would be in a price range around $57,000 and $56,000. At this stage, that would represent a decline close to – 15%. 

Conclusion

After a period of decline from a peak at $72,000, Bitcoin has found a new wave of interest around $60,000, significantly rising above this threshold. This dynamic thus suggests a possible continuation of the upcoming bullish trend. However, it will be crucial to carefully observe the price reaction at different key levels to confirm or invalidate the current hypotheses. It is also important to remain vigilant against potential “fake outs” and market “squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let’s remember that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria, and cryptocurrency prices can also evolve rapidly based on more fundamental factors.

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Family Trading

Family Trading est une Communauté de traders a compte propre active depuis 2017 offrant Lives, contenus éducatifs et entraides autour des marchés financiers dont celui des cryptomonnaies avec à ses côtés Elie FT, investisseur et trader de passion sur le marché crypto.

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