Bitcoin: Buyers Shunned the Dip at 58,000 Dollars

The cryptocurrency market remembers the sharp drop of BTC below 58,000 dollars in July. However, on-chain data shows a much weaker reaction than expected after this dip. This discretion of buyers now raises a central question: did this level really represent a durable floor? The HODL Waves indicator provides precise insight into recent supply movements. Its evolution mainly suggests slow accumulation, very different from the reactions observed at previous cycle lows.

Limited Reaction After Bitcoin Falls Below 58,000 Dollars

The on-chain HODL Waves indicator classifies bitcoin according to its inactivity duration in wallets. It allows tracking several supply groups. The tranche inactive for one to seven days provides an indication of activity after a major move. This measure forms the wavy pattern of the chart and helps observe changes around key prices.

On July 1st, the bitcoin/USD price briefly dropped below 58,000 dollars. It reached its lowest level since September 2024, according to indicator data. However, supply inactive for one to seven days did not move significantly. It represented 1.97% of the supply that day, then reached only 2.35% by July 5.

This limited progression contrasts with reactions seen at major price floors. During previous down phases, buyers took more advantage of new levels to enter the bitcoin market. In July, this quick reaction does not appear in the available data. The move remains weak enough to raise questions about the strength of the dip.

Willy Woo Notes an Anomaly in On-Chain Data

For on-chain analyst Willy Woo, this weak variation contrasts with behavior observed during long bitcoin floors. In his post on X, he states that buyers used to mobilize quickly when prices reached new lows. This time, the blockchain does not show the same collective movement. Woo therefore considers this absence of a peak as an anomaly in the HODL Waves model.

The analyst also believes the bottom buying might have happened gradually, possibly with a single whale behind part of the move. He highlights that this interpretation remains uncertain. Institutional investment vehicles can alter the reading of HODL Waves data. This caveat prevents drawing a definitive conclusion about investor behavior.

Woo also suggests another possibility: several buyers could have accumulated steadily, without causing a net rise. According to him, a larger group would be more likely to react together to price fluctuations. Such coordination would have created visible peaks in the data. The absence of these peaks strengthens the hypothesis of a limited number of buyers or a gradual accumulation.

July Dip Remains Debated Despite Rebound

These observations fuel doubts about the status of the dip recorded in July. The question remains whether the drop below 58,000 dollars was the last low point of the bitcoin bear market. The subsequent bitcoin rebound above 80,000 dollars has reignited debate. Some observers rely on prior price movements to envision a new macroeconomic low.

On his side, Rekt Capital considers the bearish structure still visible through a series of lower highs. According to this analysis, the trend has therefore not yet invalidated the scenario of a new drop. He mentioned an increased risk if the weekly close falls below 78,300 dollars. This setup could trigger a sharp fall, as last May.

However, buyers’ appetite changed in August. American spot bitcoin ETFs recorded 3.8 billion dollars in net inflows over three weeks. This recovery introduces a new element into the analysis. It shows that demand can return after a wait-and-see period, without resolving July’s floor question.

The dip below 58,000 dollars thus still does not provide a definitive answer on the end of the bear market. The weakness of on-chain movements contrasts with the rebound of flows observed in August. If accumulation remains gradual, the market could test previous levels. For Bitcoin, upcoming HODL data will help determine if July really marked the floor.