Bitcoin Clears $82,000 But A Major Test Still Lies Ahead

Bitcoin has just briefly surpassed 82000 dollars. It thus crosses its 50-week moving average. This threshold accompanied the end of four of the five previous comparable bear markets. However, the signal remains incomplete, as it must be confirmed by a weekly close. A failure below the 81000 to 86000 dollar zone would place the supports at 71800 and 62000 dollars back at the center of trading.

Four technical levels will decide between buyers and sellers

Bitcoin was trading around 80800 dollars this September 4, after an intraday peak close to 82000 dollars. It remains in contact with the 50-week moving average, estimated at nearly 81800 dollars by Galaxy Research.

The continuation of the movement will be determined by several key levels :

• A weekly close above 81800 dollars would confirm the breakthrough ;
• The zone between 83000 and 86000 dollars concentrates a large quantity of bitcoins likely to be sold ;
• A sustained rise would open the way towards 90000, then 98000 dollars ;
• A break of the supports located between 76000 and 78000 dollars would expose 71800, then 62000 to 65000 dollars.

The 50-week moving average confirmed four reversals out of five

Historically, the 50-week moving average serves as a ceiling during bitcoin bear markets. According to a study published by Galaxy Research, four of the five comparable periods ended following the first successful weekly close above this line.

The movement observed above 82000 dollars thus represents a favorable signal. However, it is not yet a confirmation. The price must remain above the average until the weekly close. A simple intraday excursion does not meet the criteria used in the study.

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, acknowledged :

It is not a perfect indicator of the bottom nor a perfect long term support, but it comes very close.

However, the 2021-2022 precedent calls for caution. Bitcoin had twice reclaimed its 50-week moving average, in December 2021 and March 2022. These breakouts only lasted one to two weeks before another correction. The price ultimately reached a bottom near 15758 dollars in November 2022.

The start of the current cycle dates back to the October 2025 peak, set at over 126000 dollars. Then, bitcoin pulled back to nearly 58500 dollars on June 30, 2026, a drop of 53.1%. The rise above 80000 dollars thus represents an increase of about 40% since this bottom.

Sellers are waiting for bitcoin between 83 000 and 86 000 dollars

The crossing of the moving average is only the first obstacle. According to data from Glassnode, multiple long-term holders bought their bitcoins between 83000 and 86000 dollars.

Such concentration is the origin of a potential selling zone. Nearly 68% of the bitcoin supply is now in profit, compared to 65% during a comparable test in May. A new rebound would thus allow many investors to sell without loss.

However, August’s rise relies on spot acquisitions and nearly 2.8 billion dollars of inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs. The drop in open interest on futures contracts and the maintenance of moderate funding rates clarify that the movement does not come exclusively from speculative leveraged positions.

Nevertheless, this apparent demand remains irregular. It briefly became negative again at the beginning of this month, indicating that new acquisitions do not always offset bitcoins put back into circulation.

The 62,000 dollar scenario depends on two supports

A close above 81800 dollars, followed by a sustained breakthrough of 86000 dollars, would strengthen the scenario of an end of the bear market. The next resistances would be located around 90000 dollars, then close to the 2026 peak at 98000 dollars.

Conversely, a return below 76000 dollars could weaken the recovery. Thereafter, a technical analysis locates another major support at 71781 dollars. Its breach could increase the risk of a drop towards 62677 dollars, then towards the annual bottom near 57800 dollars.

The next weekly close will thus be decisive. It will allow distinguishing a true change of trend from a temporary rebound similar to the false signals of 2021-2022.