Bitcoin Correction Pushes MVRV Near Key Threshold

A key valuation indicator today places bitcoin at an unprecedented level since March 2023, a period when BTC traded around 20,000 dollars. After several months of correction following its last all-time high, the market shows a reading rarely seen during the cycle. This configuration, based on on-chain data, raises questions about the real state of the market and the position of bitcoin in its current phase.

The MVRV reaches an unprecedented level since March 2023

While CryptoQuant calls for patience in the face of the flagship crypto’s decline, the MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value), which compares bitcoin’s market capitalization to its realized capitalization, that is, the value of BTC at the price of their last on-chain movement, shows a reading of 1.13.

This is its lowest level since March 2023, a period during which bitcoin traded around 20,000 dollars.

The highlighted facts are the following :

• The MVRV fell to 1.13, marking its lowest level since March 2023 ;
• The threshold of 1.0 is historically considered an undervaluation zone ;
• The decline comes after about four months of downward trend ;
• The previous all-time high was recorded in October 2025 ;
• The current cycle has not experienced an extreme overvaluation zone before the correction.

In the analysis, the MVRV is presented as a classic indicator to evaluate whether the market is paying a significant premium above the average acquisition cost of investors. A reading close to 1.0 means that the market capitalization approaches the realized capitalization, which historically corresponds to phases of compressed valuation.

The historical capitulation and an atypical cycle reading

Beyond the raw level of the MVRV, the MVRV Z-score over two years reaches historically low levels. Analysts believe this configuration is comparable, or even lower, than those observed at previous major bottom points. Some on-chain observers even speak of a “historic capitulation zone”, suggesting a moment of extreme pressure on holders.

Moreover, the previous bitcoin cycle did not show marked overvaluation excess before entering a bearish phase. This absence of excessive euphoria changes the usual reading of cycles, where a phase of frenzy generally precedes a deep correction. The current market would therefore be evolving in a less classical configuration, which makes any mechanical comparison delicate.

On-chain data signals a valuation zone rarely observed since 2023. It remains to be seen whether the bitcoin price consolidates a structuring bottom or if it is part of an intermediate phase of the cycle. The coming weeks will allow measuring the strength of this signal against the actual market dynamics.