Bitcoin crosses $69,000 after a weaker US CPI

How far will it drop before crossing the peaks again? The question puzzles investors. Yet, bitcoin flirts today with its 2021 ATH. $69,000. The psychological threshold. That of past records. A lucky Friday the 13th. The US economy has spoken. Inflation is slowing down. And crypto, it jumps. Markets hold their breath. How long will it last?

Inflation and bitcoin: the duo shaking the US economy

First, the number that changes everything after the expiration of $3 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options. The US consumer price index falls to 2.4% in January. Below the expected 2.5%. The core CPI itself slips to 2.5%. Its lowest level since March 2021. The Kobeissi Letter exults on X: 

The core CPI inflation is now at its lowest level since March 2021. The chances of further rate cuts are rising. 

The market reacts immediately. Bitcoin jumps 4% in a few hours. It hits $69,190 on Bitstamp. The famous threshold. The one that shakes screens. Traders rejoice. 

Yet, the US economy is not saved. Far from it. Households still suffer. Service prices rise. Customs tariffs threaten. But crypto reads the figures in its own way. It sees a promise of future liquidity. 

A half-open door to lower rates. A breath of fresh air in a suffocated market. The question remains whether this reading is clear-eyed or just a pious lie.

$69,000, the wall that scares bitcoin traders

Second, the wall. Because $69,000 is not just a round number. It is the old historic record of 2021. It is also the 200-week exponential moving average. A formidable technical zone. A cemetery of stopped-loss orders. Daan Crypto Trades observes the mechanics: 

BTC is still consolidating in this descending wedge. It tried a breakout yesterday but met a rejection at 68,000. This is the zone to watch for a possible new upward leg. 

Michael van de Poppe remains confident. He predicts a “higher low” to come. But he admits the moment’s fragility. The economy sends conflicting signals. Core monthly CPI accelerates to 0.3%. Its highest for five months. 

The Fed will not move in March. The chances of rate cuts remain below 10%. Bitcoin walks a tightrope. Between hope and the precipice.

Truflation, the hidden radar that changes the economic landscape

Next, there is what traditional media do not see. They look at the official CPI, comment on it, dissect it. Meanwhile, part of the crypto sphere was looking elsewhere. André Dragosch, researcher at Bitwise, tweets: “Not really a surprise if you followed @truflation’s CPI number which has already dipped below 1%… IYKYK“. 

Translation: insiders already knew. While official economists celebrate the number of the day, part of the market was building its own truth. Alternative data. More real-time. Less politically sensitive. 

This distrust of official figures tells something deep. Crypto no longer trusts blindly. It builds its own tools. Its own indicators. Its own reading of the economy. Bitcoin’s rally is not just a mechanical reaction. 

It is an act of faith. In data others do not see yet.

Bitcoin’s rebound in numbers

• CPI January: 2.4%, below the 2.5% expected by economists;
• Core CPI: 2.5%, its lowest level since March 2021;
• Bitcoin: +4% in a few hours, up to $69,190;
• Technical resistance: $68,000-$69,000, old 2021 ATH;
• BTC price at publication time: $70,418.

This renewed vigor barely heals the wounds. A few days ago, bitcoin recorded 2.3 billion losses in seven days. The market was bleeding. The fall seemed endless. Today, the breath settles down slowly. But each green candle is a promise. That resilience will pay off eventually. That cycles, even violent ones, always end up offering a comeback.