Bitcoin Drops To $65,900 As Fed Tightening Risks Grow

Bitcoin fell to its lowest level in twelve weeks, wiping out most of its summer rebound. However, the Fed has not yet decided on any hike in December. The market is already correcting the easing scenario on which part of the recovery was based.

Bitcoin returns to its August levels and wipes out its rebound

Bitcoin fell around $65,900 on November 14, down 4.5% in twenty-four hours and 9.5% over one week. Ether trades near $1,850, while Solana has fallen back below $80.

BTC remains about 16% above its late June low near $59,000. However, it has lost nearly 21% since its autumn peak around $86,000. Several factors explain this reversal :

• Core inflation rose 0.3% in October ;
• The Fed keeps rates between 3.75% and 4% ;
• Markets almost unanimously anticipate a hike in December ;
• A 50 basis points hike is no longer entirely excluded ;
• Bitcoin ETFs have had six consecutive sessions of outflows.

Christopher Waller, Federal Reserve governor, supports a hike of at least 25 basis points at the December 8-9 meeting. He believes a 50-point increase should be considered if monthly core inflation reaches 0.3% or higher. This condition has now been met.

“A more aggressive FOMC action could be necessary,” he said in his official speech. This position remains personal and is not a collective Fed decision.

The dollar regains control of the bitcoin price

Markets do not wait for the December meeting to react. As of November 13, rate contracts assigned a 91.9% probability to a 25 basis points hike, versus 8.1% for a 50 points increase.

This reassessment has strengthened the dollar. Its index exceeded 103, its highest level since April 2025. A stronger greenback tightens global financial conditions. Dollar-denominated assets become more expensive for foreign investors, while U.S. bonds offer a more attractive yield.

Bitcoin pays neither interest nor dividends. When yields on less risky assets rise, the opportunity cost of holding it increases. Its price then depends more on new capital inflows and risk appetite.

This mechanism explains why BTC can decline even before an official decision. Monetary policy acts first through expectations: bond rates, the dollar, and portfolios adjust as soon as investors believe in a trajectory change.

Outflows from ETFs amplify this movement without being the sole origin. U.S. products recorded about $1.49 billion in outflows between November 5 and 12. However, they still hold nearly $55.5 billion in cumulative net inflows, which does not indicate a general institutional abandonment.

The current decline rather shows that ETFs now transmit macroeconomic changes to the crypto market more quickly. Investors can reduce their exposure to bitcoin as easily as selling a tech stock or an index fund.

The next rebound will depend more on inflation than RSI

Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) fell to 25.4. An RSI below 30 generally signals an oversold market and may precede a technical rebound. However, the ADX reaches 25.3, indicating the downtrend remains structured enough to continue.

The first support was around $67,650. Its break would expose a lower zone near $64,000. On the upside, BTC should regain $70,815 then $72,775 before facing stronger resistance between $74,355 and $75,937.

These levels will not suffice to rebuild the summer rally. A lasting rebound would also require an improvement in the macroeconomic scenario: slowing inflation, dollar easing, or a retreat in rate hike expectations.

Two meetings thus become more important than the RSI. The minutes of the Fed’s October meeting will be released on November 18, then PCE data on November 25. They will allow assessing whether the central bank is leaning towards an ordinary hike or a more aggressive tightening.

Bitcoin no longer only awaits the Fed’s decision. It is already pricing in the risk that it confirms what the markets have anticipated. To regain its summer rally, it will therefore not only have to attract buyers: it will also have to survive in an environment where the dollar and rates become the dominant assets again.