Bitcoin erases all its 2025 gains and dangerously approaches the CME gap

The end of the tunnel still seems far away for bitcoin. While some hoped for a technical rebound or a healthy consolidation, the crypto market mostly shows signs of exhaustion. Technical thresholds are breaking one after another, and investor morale is wavering. As BTC retreats, the most optimistic projections vanish, giving way to scenarios of prolonged correction. Data, tweets and analysts converge towards a chilling conclusion: the trend is no longer bullish.

Beneath the surface, bitcoin breaks a key threshold and plunges crypto traders’ morale

By losing its 50-week moving average, bitcoin did not just cross a price line: it awakened the old demons of the crypto market. This threshold, rarely broken in the history of BTC, has often marked the entry into a zone of lasting turbulence.

For The Swing Trader, the break is symbolic:

Bitcoin has officially lost the 50-week moving average for the fourth time in its history. Even though bitcoin broke this support, it is now much closer to a bottom than a peak. I expect a low point soon, probably near the CME gap.

The Fear & Greed Index has plunged to 10/100, the lowest level of 2025. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades sees a climate comparable to the FTX implosion. However, nothing indicates an immediate recovery. On the contrary, some, like @Roman_Trading, already mention a scenario at $76,000. And this major break is accompanied by a worrying misalignment with other markets.

Bitcoin is no longer correlated to gold and reacts like a leveraged tech stock, notes The Kobeissi Letter.

CME Gap and risk zone: crypto whales set a trap between 88K$ and 92K$

Since April, a gaping hole waits to be filled on CME futures: the famous “CME Gap” between 91,900 $ and 92,500 $. This zone acts like a magnet. Many see it as a mandatory passage, almost mechanical. Hardy (@Degen_Hardy) is clear:

There is an obvious CME gap between 91,900 $ and 92,500 $, and you already know how this game works. The whales want their orders filled before the next market leg.

In this dangerous interval, Binance whales have already placed large orders between 88,500 $ and 92,000 $, according to BitBull. For crypto traders, the time is therefore for caution… or liquidity hunting. Michael van de Poppe, for his part, dreams of a return above 94,000 $ as a signal of a reversal.

But between measured optimism and relentless technique, the market remains suspended on massive sell orders and uncertain rebound zones. One thing is sure: as long as the gap is not filled, bearish scenarios will remain dominant.

A worrying death cross on bitcoin, a macro context that freezes the blood of crypto investors

In an unstable macroeconomic climate, technical signals worsen the situation. The “death cross” is dreaded. It occurs when the 50-day moving average passes below the 200-day moving average.

And while bitcoin loses its lustre, classic assets like US stocks show insolent calm. The contrast is striking. Gold rises, bond yields climb, but crypto wavers. BTC has never been so uncorrelated from indices.

The Kobeissi Letter summarizes: the current drop is isolated, without impact on traditional markets, and explained by massive liquidations more than by an identifiable macro event.

Numerical benchmarks on the current climate

• Bitcoin trades around 93,621 dollars at the time of writing this article;
• The Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 10/100, its lowest level of the year;
• The CME Gap located between 91,900 $ and 92,500 $ remains intact since April;
• Crypto market capitalization has dropped by 1.1 trillion dollars in 41 days, i.e. 27 billion per day (source: Kobeissi Letter);
• The correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq reaches 0.80, an almost record level since 2022.

While the market seems to play for time, the hemorrhage is not limited to bitcoin. BTC-related ETFs also record net outflows of 1.1 billion dollars, fueling widespread concern in the crypto universe.