Bitcoin Euphoria Challenged By Fidelity Forecast

While the crypto sector anticipates a prolonged bullish cycle, supported by the arrival of institutional investors and a maturing regulatory framework, a major voice disrupts this consensus. Jurrien Timmer, Director of Macro Research at Fidelity, speaks of a break in momentum. According to him, Bitcoin could pause in 2026, not at a peak, but around a technical pullback. A projection that challenges the prevailing euphoria and invites reconsideration of the medium-term market trajectory.

Fidelity’s macroeconomic reading

In an analysis published on December 12 on the X network, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Macro Research at Fidelity Investments, suggested that Bitcoin may have already reached the peak of its current cycle with a peak at $126,000 last October.

According to him, this would mark the end of the traditional four-year cycle driven by the halvings. “It may well be that Bitcoin has already completed a new four-year halving cycle phase,” he wrote, while emphasizing : “Bitcoin winters have generally lasted about a year, so I have the feeling that 2026 could be a drought year for crypto. The support is between $65,000 and $75,000.” He forecasts a period of stagnation or even decline for 2026, rather than continued upward momentum.

This reading is based on macroeconomic models that Timmer regularly uses to interpret BTC’s evolution, notably :

• The demand curve, used to analyze Bitcoin’s large-scale adoption as a technology asset with exponential growth ;

• The S-curve, which suggests a maturity phase after the initial explosion, marking a transition to a more stable but less dynamic market ;

• The historical analysis of cycles: previous “crypto winters” lasted about a year, reinforcing his hypothesis of a sustained slowdown after this year ;

• A mean reversion estimated between $65,000 and $75,000, identified as a potential technical and psychological support zone.

By offering this framework, Timmer challenges a currently dominant market view : that of a prolonged super-cycle fueled by favorable regulations and institutional adoption. His position encourages seeing 2026 not as a delayed peak but as a consolidation plateau.

What if the bull market isn’t over ?

Contrary to this cautious reading, several leading analysts foresee an acceleration of the bull cycle beyond 2025, driven by post-crisis normalization and structurally positive fundamentals.

Tom Shaughnessy, co-founder of Delphi Digital, sees in the liquidity shock of last October 10, which he describes as an exceptional event, a temporary bottom heralding a new bull cycle.

“We are going through an exceptional extreme liquidation event, a real 10 out of 10, which deeply destabilized the market,” he explained on X, adding that BTC prices could reach new highs in 2026. For him, institutional adoption, regulatory progress, and asset tokenization should catalyze a sustained market rally.

This outlook is supported by trends observed at players like OKX, which multiplies initiatives to integrate traditional finance within crypto-native infrastructures. According to Hong Fang, platform president, “the convergence between crypto and traditional finance is no longer a mere hypothesis. It is happening here and now.”

The rise of regulated products, the legislative implementation on stablecoins, and net long positions on Ether (475 million dollars, against short positions on BTC amounting to 123 million) illustrate a profound market reorganization around new catalysts. In this perspective, the pause envisaged by Fidelity may not occur, or at least could be quickly reversed by a return of confidence and capital.

While Fidelity anticipates a declining 2026, a massive inflow into Bitcoin ETFs revives hopes for a rebound. Between institutional caution and emerging bullish signals, the market trajectory remains open, driven by opposing forces.