Bitcoin Faces A 42% Crash Risk As History Raises Alarm

Two analyses revive the prospect of a sharp drop in bitcoin. Jason Calacanis targets 57000 dollars, while a repetition of the 2018 electoral cycle would lead BTC below 50000 dollars. These forecasts seem to converge, but they rely on different mechanisms and therefore do not automatically reinforce each other.

The scenario under 50000 dollars depends on a repetition of 2018

Ali Martinez relies on bitcoin’s performance during the fourth quarters corresponding to the US midterm elections. BTC had fallen during the three previous occurrences, but with very different amplitudes.

Jason Calacanis, for his part, forecasts a return of bitcoin to around 57000 dollars over the next twelve months. This target represents a decline of about 28% from the 79600 dollars observed at the time of his statement.

The two scenarios thus rely on distinct elements :

• Jason Calacanis anticipates a sustained decline in demand for bitcoin ;
• He believes that capital will move towards artificial intelligence ;
• Ali Martinez compares 2026 to the election years 2014, 2018, and 2022 ;
• The scenario below 50000 dollars assumes a fall comparable to that of 2018 ;
• The 73000 dollar level is the first threshold to watch before these targets.

In 2014, bitcoin lost 16.70% in the fourth quarter. The decline reached 42.16% in 2018, then 14.75% in 2022. Applied to a price near 79600 dollars, a 42.16% correction would bring BTC down to around 46000 dollars.

However, this calculation describes an extreme possibility, not a central forecast. As Ali Martinez reminds, “correlation does not imply causation”. The midterm elections did not directly cause the previous drops. Liquidity, debt levels, and bitcoin’s position in its cycle also played a role.

Artificial intelligence diverts part of bitcoin’s capital

Jason Calacanis’ analysis is not based on a chart, but on competition between two investment narratives. He considers that artificial intelligence now offers more utility, innovation, and growth prospects than bitcoin.

He wrote:

Why place your resources in a dead network that offers nothing beyond a store of value?

He recommends investors sell their bitcoins to fund “superintelligence”, estimating that BTC has lost the audience that previously made holding it almost essential.

His argument touches on bitcoin’s main driver of value: the arrival of new buyers. A supply limited to 21 million units does not guarantee an increase if demand stops growing. American Bitcoin ETFs recorded about 774 million dollars in outflows over two sessions before recovering 110 million the following Monday.

Calacanis’ position nevertheless presents a contradiction. He does not reject all cryptos since he holds TAO, the token of the artificial intelligence network Bittensor. His critique is therefore less directed at the blockchain than at the lack of productive utility he attributes to bitcoin.

His target of 57000 dollars thus depends on a hypothesis difficult to measure: AI should sustainably divert attention and capital from BTC. However, a correction in technology stocks could produce the opposite effect and push some investors to seek an asset outside the sector.

Bitcoin must first yield 73000 dollars to confirm the risk

The market must cross several stages before a bitcoin at 57000 or 46000 dollars becomes a credible scenario. The first decisive level is around 73000 dollars, corresponding to the average purchase price of recent holders according to Ali Martinez.

A breach of this threshold would place a larger portion of these investors at a loss. Some might sell to limit their losses, thus reinforcing pressure on the price. Conversely, maintaining above 73000 dollars would reduce the immediate relevance of the two bearish targets.

The comparison with 2018 also remains imperfect. That year, bitcoin was emerging from a bubble dominated by retail investors and did not benefit from either US spot ETFs or corporate treasuries observed today. These new buyers can slow a correction, without preventing it.

The forecasts below 50000 dollars therefore do not form a consensus. One assumes a sustained loss of interest in favor of AI, the other reproduces the worst performance of a sample limited to three election years. Before watching these spectacular targets, the market must confirm the breach of 73000 dollars and a continuation of capital outflows.