Bitcoin's $80K Support Faces 3 Major Market Tests

Bitcoin begins a decisive week around 80000 dollars. It simultaneously concentrates the average purchase price of corporate treasuries, significant coverage in the options market, and the last technical defense before a deeper decline zone.

The 80000 dollars become a three-dimensional threshold

Bitcoin trades around 80500 dollars after failing to rebound to 85000 dollars. On the daily chart, sellers maintain the advantage as long as the price remains below the zone between 81500 and 82000 dollars.

A lasting break below 79000 to 80000 dollars would weaken the upward channel observed since September. It would first expose the zones of 78000 and 75000 dollars, where buyers had previously strengthened their positions.

The current level concentrates three different stakes :

• The zone from 79500 to 80000 dollars represents an immediate technical support ;
• The average acquisition price of companies holding bitcoin is close to 80000 dollars ;
• A strong concentration of protective options is also located around this threshold ;
• Leveraged positions could be closed between 78500 and 79000 dollars ;
• A rise above 83000 dollars would weaken the bearish scenario.

Companies that have established bitcoin treasuries would be at a loss below 80000 dollars, according to Glassnode estimates. This situation would not automatically force them to sell. However, it could complicate their next fundraising and reduce their capacity to continue buying.

Analyst Benjamin Cowen places more importance on the weekly close below 83000 dollars. He stated:

This scenario becomes invalid if bitcoin passes back above 83000 dollars and holds there.

This threshold therefore represents the first level necessary to restore confidence.

The Fed opens a sequence of four close events

The week will not be limited to the Federal Reserve monetary policy decision. Four major events will follow between October 28 and 30, leaving little time for the market to absorb each piece of information.

The Fed will announce its decision on Wednesday, October 28. A large majority of economists surveyed expect the key rate to remain in its range of 3.75% to 4%. The main focus will be on the speech of its chairman, Kevin Warsh, and the indications regarding the December meeting.

A few hours later, Alphabet and Microsoft will publish their quarterly results. Amazon will follow on October 29. These announcements will impact bitcoin, as its recent variations have followed those of tech stocks. The Nasdaq lost 2.6% on Thursday, its worst session since June, amid concerns about artificial intelligence-related spending.

The new US on-chain inflation data will then be released on October 29. Their arrival after the Fed meeting creates a particular timing: the central bank will take its decision before having this new information. A statistic exceeding expectations could thus immediately alter anticipations for December.

Finally, about $11.7 billion of Bitcoin options will expire on October 30. Of this total, nearly $4.5 billion relate to bullish bets between 90000 and 100000 dollars, levels that have become difficult to reach a few days before expiration.

Options can amplify the movement in both directions

The concentration of positions explains why the next variation could be more brutal than the current price suggests. Below 80000 dollars, a significant pocket of fragile bullish positions appears between 78500 and 79000 dollars. Their forced closure could accelerate a fall toward 75000 to 78000 dollars.

The mechanism also works upward. A recovery to 81500 dollars would place bitcoin facing a first concentration of short positions around 82000 to 82500 dollars. Their closure could favor a return to 84000 or 85000 dollars.

Oil adds one last variable. Brent ended the week at 116.72 dollars, its highest level in six months. A new increase would fuel inflation fears and strengthen expectations for monetary tightening in December.

The most likely scenario is therefore not necessarily an immediate fall or a linear rebound. The market could first remain trapped between 79000 and 83000 dollars, before the Fed, tech earnings, and the options expiration cause an exit from this zone. The direction of this break will determine whether 80000 dollars become a floor again or turn into resistance.