Bitcoin Fails to Reach $72,000: Analysis of June 11, 2024

While the price of Bitcoin faced bullish pressure pushing its price towards its highest level, BTC failed to break its resistance at $72,000. Let’s analyze together the future prospects of BTC’s price.

Situation of Bitcoin (BTC) Price

While Bitcoin seemed poised to continue its upward trend, selling pressure upon reaching $72,000 challenged this dynamic. Indeed, for the fourth time, the cryptocurrency rejected this price level, which seems to constitute significant resistance. Now, Bitcoin’s price appears to be forming a double top, a technical pattern suggesting a possible continuation of the bearish movement. This naturally suggests a reversion to the lower part of the range formed by Bitcoin around $60,000.

At the time of writing this text, Bitcoin is trading close to $67,500. In the short term, we can see that the cryptocurrency has stabilized around $67,000. Thus, maintaining BTC at this level can continue to give hope to buyers. The medium to long-term structure of Bitcoin remains bullish, as demonstrated by Dow theory and the 50 and 200-day moving averages. This reinforces the optimistic perspective. Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s price momentum seems to continue weakening, suggesting a continuation of the freshly embarked bearish movement.

The current technical analysis was conducted in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Today, he is a trainer at Family Trading, a community of thousands of proprietary traders active since 2017. There, you will find Lives, educational content, and mutual aid around financial markets in a professional and friendly atmosphere.

A Closer Look at Bitcoin Derivatives (BTCUSDT)

The open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains resurgent even as its underlying asset is losing value. This demonstrates an increase in positions (long or short) as the cryptocurrency approaches the $67,000 support. Coupled with a still-positive funding rate, it can be inferred that buying interest still dominates. This reflects a price divergence between BTCUSDT contracts and their underlying asset, likely due to resurgent bullish pressure. Finally, on the liquidation side, more than $21 million in liquidations occurred during the rejection of $72,000, demonstrating a forced capitulation of buyers.

The liquidation heatmap for the past month indicates that BTC/USDT reacted negatively upon reaching the liquidation zone identified around $72,000. This demonstrates selling interest at this level. Currently, the most significant liquidation zone is between $65,000 and $66,000. If the market approaches this level, we could witness a massive trigger of orders, potentially increasing the cryptocurrency’s volatility. This zone represents significant points of interest for investors.

Hypotheses for Bitcoin (BTC) Price

• As long as Bitcoin’s price manages to stay above $66,000, we can anticipate breaking $72,000. The next resistance to consider, if the upward movement continues, would be Bitcoin’s ATH just below $74,000. Higher, we can highlight the first level of Fibonacci extensions identified at $78,300. At this stage, it would represent a 16% increase.

• If Bitcoin’s price does not stay above $66,000, we could foresee support from buying interest at $65,000 or even $63,000. The next level to consider, if the downward movement continues, would be around $60,000. At this stage, it would represent a decrease close to -10%.

Conclusion

Although the long-term trend of Bitcoin remains bullish, the recent rejections at critical resistance levels and the formation of a double top suggest a possible continuation of the bearish movement. The recent stabilization gives hope to buyers, but the current momentum indicates a weakening of them. Thus, it will be crucial to closely observe price reactions at different key levels to confirm or refute current hypotheses. It is also important to stay vigilant against potential “fake outs” and market “squeezes” in any scenario. Finally, let’s remember that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria and that the price of cryptocurrencies can also rapidly evolve depending on other more fundamental factors.