Bitcoin Hot Supply Hits Record Amid Fragile Recovery

Driven by a speculative surge, bitcoin crosses critical thresholds while global markets remain tense. Indeed, on-chain analysis reveals a sudden acceleration in the “hot supply”, these freshly moved bitcoins that indicate the arrival of new short-term players. The signal is strong, and the momentum is powerful. However, behind the bullish surge, a question remains: is this rise based on solid foundations or on fragile enthusiasm?

The irresistible surge of moved bitcoin volume

The so-called “hot” supply of bitcoin, referring to units moved during the last week. This volume now reaches nearly $40 billion, its highest level since February.

Glassnode in a publication on April 29, 2025, on social network X (formerly Twitter) explains :

This metric captures the activity of short-term holders and serves as a proxy for the influx of speculative capital into the market.

This development marks a spectacular acceleration of speculative activity, fueled by the rise of the bitcoin price toward $95,000.

The data reveal a particularly important dynamic:

• The volume of bitcoins moved has jumped by more than 90 % in just one week, illustrating a massive surge of fresh capital ;
• Since March 23, when it had fallen to $17.5 billion, the “hot” supply has gained more than $21.5 billion in five weeks ;
• The current level is the highest since early February, a sign of a massive return of short-term investors to the market.

This speculative frenzy reflects the tendency of new entrants to react quickly to bullish signals. However, this excitement raises questions about the strength of this recovery, as experienced investors scrutinize the robustness of the underlying fundamentals.

Network activity still timid despite speculative frenzy

While the influx of fresh capital gives the feeling of a market in full revival, Glassnode tempers this enthusiasm. The analytics firm notes that “on-chain activity, such as transfer volume and transaction fees, is in a recovery phase, but the number of daily active addresses is still low”.

In other words, organic user engagement on the Bitcoin network remains low, far from the levels seen during historical bull cycles. The analysis also highlights that despite visible progress on indicators such as Percent Supply in Profit (86%) and NUPL (0.53), the fundamentals do not yet indicate a fully engaged market.

This dissociation between speculation and network activity invites caution. While early FOMO (“Fear Of Missing Out”) signals begin to appear, there is a real risk that this adrenaline rush may be followed by a slowdown if long-term investor interest does not materialize. The market could then be exposed to false recoveries that trap new entrants before a sharp reversal.

In the short term, the evolution of on-chain activity will be decisive in judging the strength of the ongoing movement. If the increase in active addresses and the sustained growth of transaction volumes confirm rising interest in bitcoin, a true bullish cycle could take hold. Otherwise, the current speculative surge may quickly prove ephemeral, leading to an equally brutal correction.