Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply Reaches an All-Time High

According to the latest data published by CoinGlass, bitcoin has just reached a new onchain record. We are referring to long-term investors or holders who now control 79% of the circulating supply. A first in the history of cryptocurrency! Certainly, this indicator in no way guarantees an increase in bitcoin’s price. However, it could influence the dynamics of the next crypto market cycle. Hence the importance of paying special attention to it.

79% of Bitcoin Supply Is Now in the Hands of Long-Term Holders

According to the analytics firm CoinGlass, long-term holders (LTH) refer to addresses that have held their bitcoins without moving them for at least 155 days. On July 21, 2026, this supply reached 16.64 million BTC. This represents about 79% of the 20 million bitcoins in circulation.

Crypto analysts agree on one point: this level surpasses all previous ones, including that of January 2024. That period corresponds to the launch of the first American spot ETFs. To give you an idea, this amount was worth approximately $1.07 trillion in June, when bitcoin was trading around $64,100.

The LTH strategy is based on a well-known logic:

• In bear markets, they accumulate bitcoin (mainly targeting tokens sold by the newest and least resistant investors).
• During bullish phases, they sell, allowing them to make profits.

The latest data thus confirms a pattern already observed in previous cycles, with one difference: unprecedented intensity. Since the $126,000 peak in October 2025, LTHs have added more than 2 million BTC to their positions. These went from 14.12 million to 16.3 million. In just one month, their supply increased by about 200,000 BTC.

The Most Striking Figure in This Analysis May Not Be 79%, But 218,421 BTC

This is the number of dormant bitcoins for at least two years that were reactivated between January 1 and June 6, 2026. At the same date in 2024, this volume reached 1.18 million BTC. This represents an increase of more than five times.

Explanation: In 2024, bitcoin’s “old hands” were selling heavily. In 2026, they are barely moving.

The previous record low in reactivation dates back to 2012, with only 70,600 BTC reactivated during the same period. At the time, the bitcoin price was below $10. The fact that the 2026 level is the lowest since then (while BTC is worth $65,000) demonstrates a deeply rooted conviction in the flagship crypto asset.

Bitcoin Price Increase in Sight? Opinions Diverge!

Certainly, the accumulation by long-term investors highlighted by the data generally signals confidence. Nevertheless, it does not represent a foolproof predictive indicator. In reality, bitcoin price evolution depends on many other external factors.

In this context, crypto analysts outline three possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: The Technical Rebound. The record concentration of supply among LTH combined with reduced liquidity creates the conditions for a violent bullish squeeze if a catalyst occurs. This could be an accommodative Fed decision, a major institutional announcement, or a reversal of ETF flows. In this case, the lack of available supply would amplify the upward movement, potentially towards new highs.

Scenario 2: The Final Capitulation. Despite LTH conviction, a major macroeconomic reversal could force the most resilient holders to liquidate. In this case, the 5.58 million BTC at a loss among LTH could enter the market. This would create an unprecedented selling wave. Bitcoin’s price could then fall to $30,000.

Scenario 3: Prolonged Stagnation. This is the most likely short-term outlook. LTH continue to accumulate, volumes remain low, ETFs struggle to attract net inflows, and bitcoin price oscillates within a narrow range. This “hibernating market” scenario could last for months until a clear catalyst emerges.

One thing is certain: the current record alone is not enough to anticipate the next crypto market move. Evolution of the supply held by long-term holders, BTC reserves on exchanges, daily ETF flows… These are several other indicators to closely watch in the coming days to determine bitcoin’s future trajectory.