Bitcoin: Why ETFs and the 200 EMA Will Be Decisive for the Next Trend

As I indicated in my analysis last week, if Bitcoin managed to close above our daily resistance zone, the next target would be between 68,000 and 70,000 dollars. That is exactly what we are seeing today. The price now moves above this resistance with a return of buying pressure. It is a first positive signal, but it is still too early to talk about a real trend change.

For now, the scenario remains the same: as long as Bitcoin holds this zone, a continuation towards $68,000-$70,000 remains possible. However, if the price quickly falls back below this resistance, caution is advised as it could simply be a false breakout.

ETF Flows

Looking at Bitcoin ETF flows, we see several consecutive days with capital inflows. This is a positive signal, but the amounts remain relatively modest and are far from the volumes institutional investors have accustomed us to during real accumulation phases.

For now, I consider these purchases a first sign of interest, but not yet proof that the big players are aggressively back. To confirm a real sentiment change, we will need to see much larger and especially more regular inflows over the next sessions.

The 200 EMA Moving Average

Looking at the 200 week EMA, one element particularly catches my attention: Bitcoin is gradually approaching the 200 EMA which is at $68,000, a level that often plays a key role during major trend changes.

If the price manages to close above this moving average, the scenario could become much more bullish than my initial target between $68,000 and $70,000. It would be a signal showing that buyers are really beginning to take control of the market again.

However, as long as this zone is not crossed, I remain cautious. On the macro scale, my market reading remains bearish. A rejection below the 200 EMA could quickly send Bitcoin back to the price levels it came from in recent weeks.