Bitcoin Rises As Trump's Ukraine Truce Faces Doubts

Donald Trump announced on October 11 an immediate “energy truce” between Russia and Ukraine. But Kiev claims it was not informed of a final agreement, Moscow has not confirmed it, and Russian strikes on Ukrainian facilities continued after the American statement.

Trump announces an agreement without revealing its conditions

Donald Trump specified neither the duration of the arrangement, nor the infrastructures concerned, nor the means planned to control its application. The White House did not immediately publish a signed document confirming the existence of an agreement made with the two belligerents.

The American president wrote on Truth Social :

With immediate effect, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the war between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not violate it!

The term “energy truce” can cover several realities. It could designate the cessation of attacks on refineries, power plants, distribution networks, oil depots, or gas pipelines. These targets, however, do not have the same strategic importance for Russia and Ukraine.

According to an American official, Washington would initially be working on a formula limited to refineries. Protection of power plants and electrical networks might be negotiated at a later stage. This version thus differs from the general announcement published by Trump.

Zelensky supports the principle but is still waiting for the agreement

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the announcement was “news” to him. However, he indicated that his country would agree to stop its attacks if Russia made the same commitment.

“Ukraine supports the ceasefire, and it is important that Russia supports it as well. We are waiting for details from the American side,” he added.

This response does not confirm the existence of an already concluded agreement. It expresses conditional acceptance, based on reciprocity and the protection of Ukrainian infrastructures.

Kiev says it is ready to stop its strikes on Russian refineries if Moscow ends attacks on its electrical system. This distinction is important: Ukraine practically no longer has operational refining capacity, while Russia operates a vast network of refineries that have become a regular target of Ukrainian drones.

A few hours after Trump’s message, Ukraine reported new Russian strikes on its energy facilities, notably a power plant in the Kharkiv region. These attacks show that no verifiable cessation of operations had yet taken effect.

Moscow does not confirm the energy truce

As of the morning of October 12, Russia had made no public confirmation of its adherence to the truce announced by Washington. This absence prevents presenting Trump’s declaration as an effective bilateral ceasefire.

This is not the first announcement of this type. In September, the American president had already claimed that Moscow and Kiev had agreed to stop attacking each other’s energy facilities. However, strikes continued on both sides.

A previous partial agreement was also discussed in March 2025 under American mediation. Washington then separately published the results of its exchanges with Russia and Ukraine. The parties were to develop enforcement measures, but accusations of violations quickly weakened the process.

The success of a new truce assumes a common definition of the protected targets, a start date recognized by both camps, and an observation mechanism. None of these elements has yet been made public.

Bitcoin reacts, but the market remains cautious

Markets initially reacted little to Donald Trump’s announcement. Bitcoin and oil remained near their previous levels, a sign that investors awaited confirmation from both countries.

BTC then gained more than 1% to reach about 83900 dollars after more favorable statements from Zelensky. Bitcoin was trading above 84000 dollars on October 12, while the drop in oil prices temporarily improved risk appetite.

However, it would be excessive to attribute this rise entirely to the possible truce. Cryptos also react to ETF flows, US interest rate expectations, liquidity, and leveraged positions.

A lasting halt to energy attacks could reduce part of the geopolitical premium on oil and limit inflation risks. This scenario would potentially be favorable for risky assets.

However, the market currently has only an American statement, conditional Ukrainian support, and no Russian confirmation. The “energy truce” thus remains a diplomatic proposal to be realized, not an agreement effectively applied on the ground.