Bitcoin : The rally could stop abruptly, according to CryptoQuant

Bitcoin returns to a dangerous zone. After several weeks of rebound, CryptoQuant estimates that the market could flip if the current resistance holds strong. The key point is around the 200-day moving average, near 82,400 dollars. This level had already served as a ceiling during the 2022 bear market.

A resistance that awakens an old bearish signal

Bitcoin has not simply touched a technical line. It has reached a zone that already served as a wall in a previous bear cycle. This tension also recalls bitcoin’s fragile rebound after a sharp correction, already marked by liquidations and hesitant institutional demand.

For CryptoQuant, the parallel with 2022 deserves attention. At the time, the 200-day moving average blocked the price before a resumption of the decline. The market then turned an encouraging rebound into just a pause before another drop.

The question returns insistently. Does the current movement announce a true recovery, or just a classic bear market trap? Bitcoin has indeed bounced since the 66,000 dollars touched in early April. But this rise now arrives in a zone where sellers can regain control.

The danger does not only come from the chart. It also comes from traders’ behavior. According to CryptoQuant, unrealized profit margins reached 17.7% on May 5. This is their highest level since last June. This figure is important. When many participants are already in gain, the reflex to sell becomes stronger. The market can then reverse without a major event. Sometimes just a few profit-takings are enough to break momentum.

The report also signals a peak of realized profits. On May 4, traders are said to have cashed in 14,600 BTC, or nearly 1.2 billion dollars at the current price. This type of movement is not neutral. In fragile rallies, it often looks like an orderly exit before the crowd understands.

70,000 dollars becomes the true test

CryptoQuant now places an important support zone around 70,000 dollars. This level corresponds to the average price at which all bitcoins were recently transacted. In bearish phases, this zone can serve as a barometer.

But a support is never a perfect shield. It can slow down the decline, not cancel it. If sellers keep the advantage, bitcoin could quickly return to test this threshold. There, the market will have to choose between consolidation and breakout. This level still has a use. The closer the price gets to 70,000 dollars, the more the traders’ latent profits shrink. Selling pressure can therefore decrease. It’s a cold mechanism but often effective. When gains disappear, some sellers lose their urgency.

Bitcoin now evolves with Wall Street in the rearview mirror. Its institutional adoption has made it more sensitive to US economic data. The latest warning comes from producer prices in the United States, rising 1.4% in April, their strongest increase in four years according to Reuters.

Stronger inflation complicates the bullish scenario. It reduces the hope for a swift easing of monetary conditions. Yet bitcoin favors periods when liquidity flows easily. When rates, inflation, and the dollar regain strength, risky assets advance with less confidence.

Bitcoin between resistance and institutional flows

The market thus finds itself caught between two narratives. On one side, CryptoQuant sees historic resistance, high profits, and visible sales. On the other, bulls continue to bet on regulation, liquidity, and bitcoin’s role as a rare asset in an unstable world.

The answer will come from the flows. If buyers absorb the profit-taking, the resistance at 82,400 dollars may ultimately give way. If sellers dominate, April’s rebound risks becoming a false breakout. In that case, 70,000 dollars will very quickly become the level to defend.

Investors will also have to monitor institutional demand. The six weeks of inflows for Bitcoin ETFs show that major players have not left the market, even if euphoria remains limited. This detail can make the difference. A fragile market does not always collapse. But it requires solid buyers, not just promises.