Bitcoin: The Signals of a Historic Supercycle Multiply According to Raoul Pal

Is Bitcoin about to enter the largest bullish phase in its history? Raoul Pal, one of the most respected macro strategists in the industry, is convinced. According to him, the increasing pressure on global debt, massive liquidity injections, and the historic investment boom combine all conditions to trigger a true “supercycle” by the end of 2026.

Why Does Raoul Pal Believe in a Bitcoin Supercycle?

On Sunday, on the X network, Raoul Pal stated that the probability of a Bitcoin supercycle has now reached its “highest level in history.” He immediately excludes the euphoria of retail investors or the Bitcoin halving as main triggers. The real driver would be the profound transformation of the global financial system.

At the heart of his thesis: sovereign debt. For several years, governments, especially the United States, have been financing their deficits through short-term Treasury bonds. This mechanism creates increasing dependence on liquidity from central banks. At each refinancing cycle, the Federal Reserve and other central banks are pushed to inject more money into the system to avoid financial tensions.

For Raoul Pal, this money creation directly benefits rare assets like Bitcoin. The macro strategist also recalls that he has long observed a correlation close to 90% between BTC and the global M2 money supply. In other words, when global liquidity increases, Bitcoin generally follows the same trajectory.

This analysis comes in a particular context. Interest payments on U.S. debt are reaching historic records while markets are already anticipating a gradual monetary easing by the Fed.

At the same time, massive investments in artificial intelligence, infrastructure, and the energy transition fuel what Pal describes as “the largest investment spending boom in modern history.”

The Role of Institutions Could Change the Market Dimension

For the founder of Real Vision, the current cycle differs profoundly from previous crypto bull markets. In 2021, Bitcoin still largely depended on retail investors. In 2026, the landscape has changed.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have opened the door to asset managers, banks, and listed companies. Institutional players now accumulate BTC as a strategic cash reserve. This dynamic gradually reduces the available supply on the market.

The case of Strategy perfectly illustrates this trend. Michael Saylor’s company now holds over 818,000 bitcoins. Despite recent debates around possible occasional sales to finance certain dividends, the company continues to send buy signals to the market. This strategy fuels the conviction of many institutional investors.

Raoul Pal thus believes that in the event of a massive return of global liquidity, Bitcoin could experience an acceleration far more powerful than in previous cycles. His most optimistic scenario mentions a BTC at $450,000 by the end of 2026. However, he specifies that this is a probabilistic projection and not a certainty.

The market remains volatile. But several factors now strengthen this hypothesis: expansion of the money supply, institutional adoption, U.S. budget pressures, and gradual integration of Bitcoin into the financial strategies of states and companies.

The scenario defended by Raoul Pal may seem ambitious. Yet it is based on very real macroeconomic trends that are gradually transforming Bitcoin’s role in global finance.

If central banks effectively relaunch global liquidity in the coming months, Bitcoin could enter a historic bullish phase. A prospect that now attracts both retail investors and major financial institutions alike.