Bitcoin’s Rebound Is Not Enough For Major Mining Firms Yet

The rise in bitcoin does not solve the economic equation of mining. At Riot Platforms, the increase in prices covers the electricity bill, without absorbing all charges or depreciation. This gap brings the debate back to a more demanding question: from what price does a mining company actually become profitable again? The analysis distinguishes three thresholds, from energy cost to accounting result.

Three profitability thresholds, one same finding

The cost of mining a bitcoin can no longer be summarized in a single figure. It is necessary to distinguish several layers of profitability, depending on whether one looks only at electricity, operating charges, or the accounting result. Applied to Riot Platforms, this reasoning leads to a more nuanced reading of the bitcoin rebound: at the price of $67,200, the group covers a first threshold but remains underwater on the following ones.

The mining company’s model is detailed based on current network conditions and data from Riot publications. Thus, a Bitcoin difficulty of 145,042,165,424,850, a block reward of 3.125 BTC, a modern ASIC efficiency of about 17 to 19 J/TH, and an industrial electricity price in Texas close to $0.0667 per kWh are retained. Transaction fees are not included but fluctuate around 0.02 BTC per block.

• At the current price, Riot “passes a first profitability threshold, but fails to reach the next two”. This phrase sums up the entire demonstration : the company crosses the electrical threshold without reaching the operational or accounting thresholds ;

• The electrical profitability threshold is $64,635 per BTC. At $67,200, this leaves an energy margin of $2,565 per bitcoin mined ;

• When adding operating costs excluding electricity, estimated at $9,809 per BTC from Riot’s documents, the operating margin drops to -$7,243 ;

• With the depreciation layer, estimated at $39,687 per BTC, the accounting result flips to -$46,930: “the production cost of a bitcoin is not summarized by a single figure” ;

• The model also shows its intermediate metrics: 622.95 sextillion hashes per block, 199.34 sextillion hashes per BTC, and 969.04 MWh of energy per bitcoin produced.

Price scenarios outline another reading of the sector

The second part of the analysis tests the model’s sensitivity to several price levels. In the bearish scenario at $49,000, Riot remains negative across the board, with an energy margin of -$15,635, an operating margin of -$25,443, and an accounting profit of -$65,130 per BTC.

In the recovery scenario at $80,000, the group crosses the operational threshold with $5,557 margin per BTC, while the accounting line remains negative at -$34,130. Thus, “mining companies can show positive profitability on the electricity item alone, while publishing degraded operating or accounting results”.

By assuming an increase in Riot’s hashrate from 38.5 EH/s to 45 EH/s by March 31, 2026, then stabilization at this level, analysts estimate a cumulative production of 15,000 BTC across all scenarios. At $67,200, the cumulative energy margin becomes positive again at $39,286,667, but the operating margin remains negative at -$110,925,420 and the accounting profit at -$718,705,391.

At $80,000, the cumulative operating margin turns positive at $85,099,338, while the accounting profit remains negative at -$522,680,632. The full shift only appears in the scenario at $126,000, with a cumulative accounting profit of $181,783,343.

At this stage, the bitcoin price alone is not enough to restore the balance of mining companies. Riot’s case shows that between energy costs, operating charges, and depreciation, profitability remains fragile. The market rebound improves the situation without yet closing all the sector’s gaps.