BTC’s Golden Cross : Setup For The Next Bull Run ?

On May 22, a new golden cross formed on the Bitcoin chart, reactivating a signal that, in the past, preceded staggering rallies. While BTC trades below 120,000 dollars, analysts are closely watching this technical crossover between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Previously observed before the rallies of 2017 and 2020, this signal rekindles speculation about a bullish extension of the cycle that began in early 2024.

A classic technical signal with strong historical potential

On May 22, a golden cross was confirmed on Bitcoin’s daily chart, sparking renewed optimism among several technical analysts.

Trader Merlijn identified and highlighted the signal on the X platform : “Same setup. Same signal“, he commented, comparing this setup to previous major bullish cycles.

THE BITCOIN GOLDEN CROSS JUST HIT

Every. Single. Time. This signal shows up $BTC goes vertical:

2016 → +139%
2017 → +2200%
2020 → +1190%

Now it’s flashing again in 2025.
Same setup. Same signal.

Miss this and you’ll remember it forever.

Bitcoin is about to leave orbit. pic.twitter.com/dmScdEFClh

— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) July 17, 2025

The golden cross, recall, occurs when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses above the 200-day SMA, indicating a medium-term trend reversal.

In another post, Merlijn insists : “Every time this signal appears, BTC takes off“, highlighting the historically explosive nature of this crossover.

To put this into context, past data reveals spectacular performances :

• In 2017 and 2020, similar golden crosses preceded rallies exceeding 2,000 % ;
• The previous crossover, observed in October 2024, coincided with a BTC increase from $65,000 to nearly $110,000, a new all-time high ;
• Since the May 22 signal, a 12 % gain has already been recorded, although considered modest compared to past cycles.

While the technical signal is clear, its effectiveness depends on its sustainability: not all golden crosses turn into prolonged bull runs. Some episodes in the past saw the short moving average quickly drop back below the long one, invalidating the signal.

However, for now, the market seems to give credence to this crossover, strengthening the idea of a potentially ongoing bullish phase.

A key resistance and bold projections

While the golden cross technical signal strengthens the bullish sentiment, Bitcoin’s current price momentum remains suspended at a critical level. According to analyst and trader Rekt Capital, the $120,000 threshold constitutes a major resistance.

“A daily close above the ~120,000 resistance followed by a post-break retest would confirm a breakout to new highs for Bitcoin“, he stated on X.

In other words, as long as Bitcoin hasn’t validated a solid daily close above this zone followed by a successful retest, the scenario of a new surge remains theoretical. Rekt Capital also emphasizes that this stagnation phase favors an influx of capital into altcoins, creating a form of breathing room in the Bitcoin market while stimulating other cryptos.

From a historical perspective, several analysts mention ambitious targets. Merlijn estimates that BTC could aim for up to $155,000 if the 2016 golden cross pattern were to partially repeat.

Meanwhile, the intermediate target of $135,000 is often cited as the next step in case of a confirmed bullish breakout. However, it should be noted that the macroeconomic context, regulatory movements, and institutional appetite will largely influence this trajectory. Golden crosses are powerful tools, but never infallible.