Can Bitcoin Still Rebound Before Q2 2026?

Bitcoin is going through one of its toughest phases in months. Nearly half of the circulating supply is at a loss, ETFs are bleeding billions. Yet, miners and long-term holders refuse to give in. Should this be seen as a sign of hope, or simply the denial of a market that has not yet hit bottom?

Indicators Sound the Alarm

February 2026 will be remembered as a painful month for Bitcoin holders. Analyst GugaOnChain, a recognized contributor to CryptoQuant, published a particularly harsh on-chain report: 42.85% of the circulating supply is now at a loss, and the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) indicator has plummeted to 21.30%. 

Over the past thirty days, BTC has lost nearly 28% of its value, trading about 46% below its all-time high surpassing $126,000, reached in October 2025.

These levels recall painful episodes. Experts at XWIN Research note that the fear and greed index has dropped to 8 out of 100, an extremely rare level. It was previously observed only at the 2018 bottom, the COVID crash in March 2020, and the FTX collapse in November 2022. In short: the current market sentiment resembles a genuine crisis.

On the institutional side, the trend is equally worrying. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $2.17 billion in net outflows since the start of the month, with a notable acceleration when the price crossed the $60,000 threshold on February 6. 

More broadly, according to CoinShares, crypto investment products have experienced $3.8 billion in withdrawals over four consecutive weeks. Sector assets under management have fallen to their lowest level since April 2025.

The behavioral dimension also sheds light on the situation. Heavily negative funding rates on major exchange platforms, according to Santiment, indicate many traders are heavily betting on the continuation of the decline. Behavioral finance speaks here of loss aversion and herd behavior: when fear dominates, caution becomes instinctive.

Signs of Resistance That Deserve Attention

Yet, the story does not end there. Beneath the surface of a retreating market, several indicators reveal unexpected resistance, which is precisely what makes the situation interesting.

Long-term holders, far from panicking, have absorbed 380,104 BTC over the past 30 days. This figure reflects an unwavering conviction among those familiar with Bitcoin cycles: buy when there is “blood in the streets,” according to the famous phrase. 

Miners adopt the same philosophy: rather than liquidating their BTC to cover operating costs, they choose to hold. Part of their income now comes from services related to artificial intelligence, giving them unprecedented leeway to withstand selling pressure.

Michael Saylor, CEO of Strategy, embodies this conviction alone. Despite a correction of more than 50% since the all-time high, he announced a new purchase of 1,142 BTC for about $90 million — bringing the company’s total to 714,644 BTC valued at $49.3 billion. 

Globally, revealing geographic divergences are also noted. While the United States concentrates $403 million in outflows, Germany, Canada, and Switzerland show significant combined inflows — proof that American pessimism is not unanimous.

In summary, Bitcoin is going through a severe turbulence zone, and GugaOnChain does not foresee a real recovery before the second quarter of 2026. However, strong hands, miners, long-term holders, and players like Strategy send a clear message: they are not selling. In past cycles, it is often this type of silent resistance that has preceded the most spectacular reversals.