CLARITY Act: 4 Days to Avoid Failure, Chances Drop to 30%

The CLARITY Act, a flagship bill to regulate cryptos in the United States, is on the brink of failure. With 4 days to convince the Senate, its adoption has only a 30% chance of success. Between political deadlocks and economic stakes, the future of Bitcoin and altcoins is at play now.

The U.S. Senate Has 4 Days to Save the CLARITY Act, Chances Drop to 30%

The CLARITY Act, this long-awaited bill to clarify crypto regulation in the United States, sees its adoption chances drop to 30%, according to Galaxy Digital. The reason? A dire lack of votes in the Senate. Indeed, with only 4 days before the summer recess, Republicans, who control 53 seats, struggle to gather the 60 votes required to avoid a filibuster.

Democrats, led by Elizabeth Warren, strongly criticize the bill, especially on ethical provisions (entrusted to the Department of Justice) and the sunset clause in 2029. Meanwhile, Mitch McConnell, Republican leader, has been absent since his hospitalization, further reducing the chances of success. Alex Thorn, director of research at Galaxy, is clear:

The time for incremental negotiations is over. A last-minute effort is needed.

If the Senate does not initiate the process by July 30, the bill will be postponed to September, where it will have to compete with the federal budget and midterm elections. A failure would mean another year of legal uncertainty for the American crypto industry.

Bitcoin and CLARITY Act: why this law could change everything (or nothing at all)

Bitcoin, often considered a commodity by the CFTC, could indirectly benefit from the CLARITY Act, even if the text does not explicitly mention it. Indeed, by clarifying the roles of the SEC and CFTC, this law could reduce the risks of arbitrary lawsuits against platforms like Coinbase or Kraken, which list BTC. However, if the bill fails, Bitcoin could face increased regulatory pressure.

Without a clear framework, the SEC could continue targeting exchanges under the pretext of selling unregistered securities, as it did with Ripple. Conversely, if the CLARITY Act passes, Bitcoin could attract more institutional capital, notably through spot ETFs. Clear regulation would also strengthen BTC’s legitimacy as a digital store of value, against competitors like gold or the dollar.

The CLARITY Act is at a turning point. Its failure would plunge cryptos into uncertainty, while its adoption could revolutionize the market! As Charles Schwab thinks, who sees it as a historic catalyst. But with 4 days to convince, one question remains: will senators dare to save the crypto future of the United States?