CLARITY Act Faces Major Test In September 15 Senate Vote

According to former federal prosecutor Renato Mariotti, the CLARITY Act is already “dead” in the U.S. Congress. However, the bill remains subject to a crucial procedural vote on September 15, which prevents its failure from being definitively confirmed.

The September 15 vote remains scheduled

Renato Mariotti confirms having exchanged with many lawmakers and parliamentary collaborators during a trip to Washington, while the CLARITY Act has just lost a major opponent.

He then stated:

The CLARITY Act is dead. Congress is entering a post-CLARITY era.

However, Mariotti did not cite any source. No official document nor public vote count certifies the abandonment of the project either. The Senate still has to decide on September 15 on a cloture motion intended to limit debates.

This deadline takes into account four essential elements :

• The September 15 vote is a procedural vote ;
• The motion must gather at least 60 votes ;
• The Republicans hold 53 seats in the Senate ;
• Its adoption would open debates without definitively validating the law.

If all Republican senators vote in favor of the bill, seven Democrats must then join them. This scenario remains uncertain, as many Republicans have also expressed reservations regarding the project’s impact on local banks.

Opposition still threatens the CLARITY Act

A federal framework for the crypto market must be created by the bill. It should notably indicate the legal status of cryptos and could allocate powers between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

However, the CLARITY Act faces many political obstacles. Stricter rules are demanded by Democrats against money laundering as well as reinforced ethical provisions for public authorities holding interests in crypto companies.

The crypto activities of President Donald Trump and his family hold an important place in this debate. Some lawmakers want to allow state attorneys general to act when the federal government does not sufficiently enforce the intended restrictions.

Rewards paid on stablecoins constitute another sticking point. Indeed, banking institutions fear these yields will trigger an outflow of deposits necessary for loan financing. Conversely, crypto companies think that a total ban would decrease competition.

Josh Hawley and Jerry Moran, two Republican senators, have notably relayed the concerns of community banking institutions. The camp in favor of the bill must therefore maintain the unity of its own majority, even with the support of some Democrats.

Furthermore, the protections granted to decentralized protocol developers remain contested. These points of disagreement justify why some observers already rated the chances of adoption as low after the postponement of the vote initially scheduled before the summer break.

Cynthia Lummis fears a blockage until 2030

Republican senator Cynthia Lummis, one of the main defenders of the bill, believes that the electoral calendar greatly reduces the room for maneuver. Indeed, the midterm elections on November 3 could change the composition of Congress and the priorities of committees.

She thus declares on social network X: “if the CLARITY Act is not adopted by this Congress, the next real opportunity to revive a law on market structure will arise in 2030”.

This date does not represent a legal deadline. It is a political forecast by Cynthia Lummis. Another proposal would theoretically appear before 2030, but it would certainly have to go through a negotiation cycle.

Prediction markets reflect this pessimism. On September 7, Polymarket bettors assessed the probability that the project becomes law before the end of this year at about 17%. Such an evaluation signals these bettors’ expectations, not an official measure of Senate support.

Ultimately, the September 15 vote could bring the first concrete verdict. A failure of the motion would condemn the bill for this legislative session. However, a victory would only prolong its path through debates, amendments, final vote, and possible new validation by the House of Representatives.