Crypto Equities Plunge But Signal Structural Shift Ahead

After a nearly 60 % drop, crypto-related stocks are faltering. Where the market sees a sharp correction, some institutional investors already identify a window of opportunity. This perception gap reveals a turning point for the ecosystem. Behind the immediate pressure, a deeper transformation is underway: the gradual transition to on-chain finance capable of redefining the sector’s growth models.

A 60 % Drop in Crypto Stocks That Shuffles the Cards

Crypto-related stocks have suffered a severe correction in recent months, with declines ranging from 57 % to 62 % since their 2025 peaks. In a note to its clients, Bernstein believes that this movement has redefined valuation levels and states that it now represents a “more attractive entry point” for investors exposed to on-chain finance.

Despite this pullback, the firm maintains its “outperformance” recommendation on Coinbase, Robinhood, and Figure, while adjusting its price expectations amid a more uncertain short-term environment.

In detail, this correction comes with several market adjustments and signals :

• Coinbase target reduced to $330, down from $440 previously ;
• Robinhood target lowered to $130, down from $160 ;
• Figure target adjusted to $67, down from $72 ;
• Anticipation of weaker first quarter results ;
• A slight pre-market rebound: Coinbase (+2.5 %), Robinhood (+2 %), Figure (+1.7 %).

This adjustment reflects a market absorbing the excess valuation accumulated during the previous phase, giving way to a more measured approach to short-term prospects.

The Rise of Tokenized Finance

Beyond the stock market correction, Bernstein highlights a deeper transformation in the sector. The brokerage identifies a shift towards tokenized financial infrastructures, including stablecoins, tokenized credit, and on-chain prediction markets.

This evolution redefines the growth drivers of crypto companies. Figure appears as a central player in this dynamic, with loan volumes estimated at $12.8 billion this year, potentially reaching $16.5 billion by 2027 thanks to its expansion into new segments such as auto financing and SME loans.

Robinhood, for its part, could benefit from the rise of prediction markets, which Bernstein values at $240 billion. These products would represent 17 % of trading revenue and about 10 % of total turnover as early as next year.

For Coinbase, the transformation is also underway. Bernstein anticipates a reduction in dependence on spot trading in favor of derivatives and revenue linked to stablecoins. Derivatives could reach 14% of trading revenues by 2027, while stablecoins would contribute 19 % of turnover as early as next year.

This shift in business models signals a change of cycle. Current market volatility no longer hides the diversification of revenue and the progressive integration of blockchain technologies into broader financial uses. While regulatory and macroeconomic uncertainties remain, Bernstein’s projections indicate a sector in full recomposition, where future valuation will depend less on crypto trading than on the real adoption of tokenized finance.