Crypto: XRP Stuck Below $2.35, An ETF Could Change Everything

In a market searching for landmarks, the slightest regulatory rumor can change everything. XRP is the perfect illustration: stuck between $2 and $2.35, the asset is attracting increasing attention amid speculation around an ETF. Far from the usual turmoil surrounding bitcoin, this tension places Ripple’s crypto at the convergence of a dual challenge: technical unlocking and institutional recognition.

A Technical Threshold Under Watch

While the legal battle between Ripple and the SEC has finally ended, XRP is stuck in a tight consolidation zone between $2 and $2.35, unable to sustainably break through this key resistance. XRP struggles to surpass the $2.35 resistance, indicating a lack of demand at higher price levels.

In other words, buyers struggle to absorb selling pressure, especially whenever the price approaches $2.35. This resistance acts as a psychological ceiling, confirmed by a sharp rejection after a brief excursion above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA 50), located at $2.24.

Current technical levels structure a tense battle between bullish and bearish investors, and several indicators heighten the focus on this zone:

• the 20-day moving average at $2.17: if the price rebounds strongly from this level, it could signal a bullish recovery towards $2.35, then potentially $2.65;
• the 50-day moving average at $2.24: already briefly crossed, it remains an important friction level;
• an intermediate support at $2.06: if broken downwards, this threshold could give way, leading to a return to $2;
• a major support at $2: breaking this level would open a negative scenario, with a downside target at $1.61;
• a potential bullish chart: if validated, the technical target would be $2.76.

At this stage, the current consolidation can be seen either as a launchpad or as a signal of fatigue. The fate of XRP in the coming sessions will therefore depend on the market’s ability to transform this consolidation into a bullish impulse, or not.

The ETF Effect: A Persistent Rumor or an Imminent Catalyst?

Beyond technical signals, a fundamental element feeds speculation around XRP: the prospect of an ETF approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

This prospect took a much more concrete turn when Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, recognized Bloomberg analysts, recently estimated a 95% chance that an XRP ETF could come to fruition this year, alongside similar products on Solana and Litecoin. These forecasts, although unofficial, were enough to revive a wave of speculation on the asset.

Here are mine and @EricBalchunas' most recent odds on spot crypto ETF approvals by the end of 2025. We expect a wave of new ETFs in this second half of 2025. pic.twitter.com/H3pxJhqMy3

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) June 30, 2025

The difference in nature with the previously described technical signals is clear. Here, regulatory expectations take precedence. A crypto ETF is not simply a financial product; it is a gateway for institutional capital, and implicit regulatory recognition.

If XRP were to benefit from this dynamic, the bullish scenario would become structural. Such a product would allow traditional investors to expose their portfolios to XRP without having to handle it themselves. This implies a possible increase in liquidity and heightened volatility in an already fragile market.

Torn between uncertain technical signals and regulatory speculations around a possible ETF, XRP is navigating a precarious balance. The market is split between short-term distrust and speculative optimism fueled by the prospect of an ETF. However, the resistance at $2.35 might become a decisive psychological pivot. If facts are confirmed on the regulators’ side, XRP crypto could change dimension this year.