CryptoQuant Sees A More Mature Bitcoin Cycle Ahead

According to Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin bull cycle would multiply its price by three to five, compared to more than ten during some historical phases. This forecast is based on less extreme volatility and a significant institutional presence, but it does not represent a guaranteed price target.

CryptoQuant forecasts a less explosive bull cycle

On September 22, Ki Young Ju made a presentation on a scenario in which Bitcoin’s progression would remain under the explosions observed during its early cycles.

He therefore emphasized:

I expect a return of 3 to 5 times this bull cycle, rather than a new parabolic rise of over 10 times.

The CryptoQuant leader thinks that the market expansion reduces the influence of speculative capital. When Bitcoin’s valuation was lower, limited inflows were enough to trigger strong rises. Then, outflows caused corrections of up to 80%.

His scenario relies on four essential developments :

• The price could be multiplied by three to five during the cycle ;
• The next bear market could trigger a less deep correction ;
• Institutional investors would limit some speculative movements ;
• A higher capitalization could reduce the effect of each new flow.

Such progress implies a compromise. Bitcoin could offer fewer parabolic increases, but it would also be less exposed to the crashes observed during previous cycles. Ki Young Ju sees this stability as a factor able to attract more capital in the long term.

The low point at $58,000 changes the calculation

This publication by Ki Young Ju does not explicitly specify the price from which his multiple should be applied. Thus, it would be misleading to directly multiply the current price, near $86,000, by three or five.

At the end of June, Bitcoin reached a low point near $58,000. Taking this level as the start of a new cycle, multiplying by three could give nearly $174,000. Multiplying by five would lead to $290,000. This range represents a simple mathematical translation of the scenario, not an officially set target by CryptoQuant.

A price of $174,000 would exceed the record of $126,080 reached in October 2025 by nearly 38%. Bitcoin has already gained about 49% since its low point in June. Part of the projected return would thus already be realized if this date indeed serves as a reference.

Moreover, a price multiplied by three corresponds to an increase of 200%, not 300%. Similarly, multiplying by five constitutes a rise of 400%. Such a distinction avoids overestimating the extent of the forecast.

Bitcoin volatility decreases gradually

This analysis by Ki Young Ju aligns with a trend documented by Fidelity Digital Assets. In a study published in 2024, the company observed a gradual decline in Bitcoin’s volatility as its capitalization increased. Logically, identical capital produces less effect when it enters an increasingly deep market.

However, market size does not explain everything. A new analysis by Glassnode attributes about 19% of trend-adjusted volatility fluctuations to the supply held by long-term investors. This illiquid supply would justify nearly 12% compared to just 3% for capitalization.

When many bitcoins remain immobilized in long-term wallets, the volume available for transactions decreases. This situation can stabilize the price when supply and demand remain balanced. It can also amplify movements if demand suddenly increases or if former holders start selling again.

On-chain indicators do not guarantee the rise

Ki Young Ju also bases his scenario on CryptoQuant’s profit and loss index. Its 365-day moving average shows lower peaks than during earlier cycles, but also more resilient troughs. The MVRV ratio would have remained above one, including during the recent correction. Thus, holders collectively retained a market value greater than their estimated acquisition cost.

Realized capitalization is also rising, which CryptoQuant interprets as the arrival of new capital. Hence, sales from large historical addresses would have slowed down, while many significant players in the futures markets would have taken bullish positions near the low point.

These indicators support the hypothesis of a more mature cycle, yet they do not validate an immediate trajectory toward $174,000 or $290,000. The annual average of the profitability index remains below zero and continued to decline. The evolution of institutional flows, volatility, and long-term holder sales may therefore determine if CryptoQuant’s scenario is confirmed.