Despite its record, Bitcoin remains trapped in a strategic range

After setting a new historic record by nearing 125,000 dollars, Bitcoin shows signs of fatigue. Is it ready to climb another step or will it consolidate under resistance? Crypto analysts do not share the same enthusiasm. While some anticipate a rise towards 150,000 dollars, others predict an accumulation phase. The recent ATH has rekindled hope, but caution remains necessary.

Bitcoin at $124,000: Between chartist excitement and trader caution

At first glance, Bitcoin seems in excellent shape. But beyond the peak, the technical reality reminds us that the crypto star remains locked within a well-defined channel. Since its jump above 125,000 dollars, BTC is moving between a support identified around $108,000 and resistance at $123,000. This range acts as a real psychological and technical barrier.

Some traders mention a classic “weekend squeeze” followed by a retracement. According to Daan Crypto Trades, this bullish move quickly gave way to a pause, suggesting a perpetual rather than fundamental impulse. Another analyst believes the rise was “entirely driven by perpetual contracts” (TedPillows, X), making the progress fragile without institutional support.

For others, the current setup corresponds to a recharging phase. An informed user points out that a return to the 50 exponential moving average in H4 — located at $119,250 — would be healthy before another breakout attempt. “I therefore still favor long positions over shorts from this moving average“, CrypNuevo specifies.

Bitcoin must prove that this $124,000 resistance is weakening. And any more moderate pullback or correction from now on would go in this direction.

Rekt Capital, X.

Crypto and institutions: the growing influence of ETFs on Bitcoin price

Beyond graphical analysis, another key factor is mentioned by crypto analysts: the impact of institutional flows. According to Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget, the recent rise of BTC is based on much more solid foundations than mere transient enthusiasm. 

In his view, massive flows into spot ETFs contributed to driving the price upward.

Indeed, data confirms unprecedented enthusiasm from asset managers. The correlation between peaks of crypto ETF inflows and price accelerations is well established. Furthermore, some analysts believe that if this momentum persists, the next step could be a test of the 130,000-dollar area. This positions BTC as a strategic asset in institutional portfolios.

Even Ethereum benefits indirectly: a rebound towards $4,800 to $5,000 is envisaged if the momentum holds. In this context, savvy crypto investors bet on diversified exposure. The evolution of spot ETFs is therefore to be monitored as a major barometer of overall confidence in the crypto industry.

When AI cools enthusiasm: the limits of an “Uptober” 2025

But in this chorus of optimism, one algorithmic voice tempers the euphoria. CryptoQuant, via its AI tool NBeats Ensemble, estimates that a true breakout in October remains unlikely. According to this model trained on 379 on-chain variables, the probability of a decisive break is low.

The analysis mentions prolonged consolidation, with expected fluctuations in the upper half of the range, between $118,000 and $123,000. This situation resembles a phase of “silent re-accumulation” orchestrated by large holders.

The model forecasts continuous fluctuations inside the current range. However, there is a subtle but important nuance in this forecast: the model expects these fluctuations to occur mainly in the upper half of this range.

CryptoQuant 

This scenario supports the idea of a market in transition rather than explosion. Indeed, many analysts note that the absence of clear macro catalysts, such as a Fed decision postponed due to shutdown, slows momentum.

Key figures and points to remember:

• The BTC price reached $125,700 over the weekend before retreating to $124,000;
• The major support lies between $117,000 and $118,000;
• The CryptoQuant AI model excludes a breakout before several weeks;
• The overall sentiment remains at moderate “greed” with 71/100;
• ETFs attracted more than $3.2 billion in a few days.

Despite doubts about a booming “Uptober,” the overall momentum remains bullish. Many analysts believe that bitcoin has not yet shown its full potential. For them, the end of 2025 could mark a historic turning point, with a surge few would have dared to anticipate months earlier.