Ethereum Could Surpass Bitcoin by 2030 According to Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered just released a forecast that contrasts with the prevailing pessimism: Ethereum at 40,000 dollars by 2030, with a notable outperformance against Bitcoin. Surprising, given ETH’s string of bad news. However, behind this figure lies a solid analysis and arguments worth considering.

Standard Chartered reignites the debate on Ethereum’s future versus Bitcoin

This forecast comes from Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered.

In an interview with Milk Road, he presented a strong conviction: Ethereum should capture the bulk of the next wave of institutional adoption, driven by the tokenization of real assets, the rise of stablecoins, and the development of a DeFi progressively regulated.

For Kendrick, institutional enthusiasm for Ethereum is not just a passing trend. It is primarily explained by the robustness of its infrastructure. The main network layer has never experienced a major outage, a decisive criterion for actors subject to strict security and operational continuity requirements. 

He cites BlackRock as an example: the asset management giant prioritizes deployment on the Ethereum mainnet before considering expansion to other blockchains or layer-two solutions.

He also highlights a key indicator: the ratio between fees generated by the protocol and its market capitalization. The more on-chain activity intensifies, the higher this ratio rises, and the more the price of ETH should logically follow. Today, the ETH/BTC ratio is around 0.03. Kendrick anticipates it to reach 0.04 by the end of the year.

Looking ahead to 2030, his projections are unequivocal: bitcoin at 500,000 dollars, Ethereum at 40,000 dollars. This implies a significant relative outperformance for ETH compared to the market’s historical leader.

Tokenization and DeFi, the two drivers that could change everything

The core of Geoffrey Kendrick’s thesis rests on asset tokenization. Currently valued at around 300 billion dollars, the stablecoin market could reach 2 trillion within the coming years.

His logic is compelling. A company adopting stablecoins for their speed and 24/7 availability will have no incentive to keep the rest of its treasury in slow banking infrastructures. The migration to blockchain will therefore happen progressively, but on a massive scale.

Tokenized money market funds already illustrate this transformation. Still marginal with about 10 billion dollars today, they could reach 750 billion by the end of 2028. The same trajectory applies to other tokenized assets: their valuation could jump from 40 billion to 2 trillion dollars over the same period.

In this context, Ethereum establishes itself as the natural infrastructure of this emerging ecosystem. If the regulatory framework continues to clarify, a convergence between traditional finance and DeFi becomes credible.

However, the scenario is far from certain. Ethereum faces several headwinds. Spot ETFs have seen their assets under management drop by about 65% since October 2024.  

Furthermore, on Polymarket, a majority of bettors now anticipate that Ethereum could lose its second place to Tether as early as 2026. Added to this are worrying technical weaknesses: leverage ratios at record levels and a bearish target around 1,250 dollars if support breaks.

In sum, the paradox is striking: the stablecoins Kendrick presents as the main driver of ETH’s rise are precisely those which, today, inflate Tether’s market cap and weaken Ethereum’s position in the rankings. The big question for 2030 may be playing out right now.